Columnists, Sports

MARASCO: Wild, Wild East

What happens when the final home-and-home series of the regular season is against a 12-15-5 squad? You go to the games, you’re invested, but you start looking ahead to the postseason. You just can’t help it.

The Hockey East tournament looms, and could the conference be any more wide open this year? Four top-10 teams: Boston College, Boston University, the University of Massachusetts-Lowell and the University of Maine – and, the 5th, Merrimack College, sits at No. 12.

Of those five, three of them – BC, BU and Merrimack – have been ranked No. 1 in the nation at some point this season.

It’s always tempting to see the Eagles and Terriers as the favorites. Sure, BC is No. 1 and BU No. 4, but let’s not anoint them as the clear frontrunners based on that alone.

Since we’re comparing conference foes we are blessed with a ton of head-to-head data.
Against these four others, BC does have the best record, but it’s just 7-5-1. UML is 6-5-1, Maine is 5-6-1, BU is 6-7 and Merrimack is 4-5-3. Not conclusive enough for my taste. Let’s look deeper.

BC also has the best goal differential in these games, but once again the margin is not completely convincing. They’re plus-6 in this 13 game sample. Lowell is plus-3, BU is even, Merrimack is minus-2 and Maine is minus-7.

The later tournament rounds throw home-ice out the window, so being able to win away from the friendly confines has obvious value.

BU is 5-2 in road or neutral site matchups against these foes, but shockingly all the teams except Merrimack have winning road records in these battles, and Merrimack is .500.

So while BU has proven to be a good bet away from home, the others aren’t far behind.
Head-to-head matchups make things even more interesting. BC split with BU, but won the two most recent contests. The Eagles went 2-0-1 versus Merrimack, also winning the last two. The Eagles are also 2-1 against Lowell, but lost the most recent game.
Then there’s Maine.

BC is 1-2 versus Maine this season and lost the two most recent matchups. Maine also won its last two games against BU. So Maine has just casually rolled through the top two teams in Hockey East. Well played, Black Bears.

But they’re also 0-2-1 against Merrimack and 1-2 against Lowell.

What do we make of this? It’s all very confusing and disturbing. You’re tired of scratching your head. Let’s get to the bottom of this mess.

Isn’t it always about who gets hot at the right time? So who’s the hottest team?
I’m hesitant to put too much stock in games against the bottom five of Hockey East – even recent games. The top five have had either five or six clashes a piece against each other to look at since January 20th. We can stick to those.

Merrimack, UML and BU all have losing records against this group since then. That leaves BC and Maine.

BC appears to be simmering, winning three of these five, and the last three in a row.
However, if BC is simmering, then Maine has caught fire, winning all five and outscoring the opponents 20-11 during this stretch.

Dare I say Maine could be the favorite?

We can see that Maine is perking up at the right time and against the right teams. However, I know you’ve been thinking about it – that 800-pound, heavily padded gorilla in the crease. The great equalizer . . . the golden snitch . . . the all-important hot goalie.

The hot goalie can be as fickle as your junior prom date, but if you find him at the right moment he’ll make your dreams come true. Kieran Milan, Joe Cannata and Doug Carr have all been impressive this season, but they and their teams aren’t peaking at the right time.

BC’s goalie roulette has landed back on Parker Milner, and he appears to be the Eagles’ horse going forward. In his three starts during this most recent five game sample, Lil Milzy, as Milner refers to himself on Twitter, has been quite impressive, with a save percentage of .940.

To put that number in perspective, Carr is the class of Hockey East in this category for the season, at .927.

And what about Maine and Dan Sullivan, you ask? Sullivan has been stopping pucks at a rate of .905 for the season, but in the five most recent games against the top of Hockey East he’s right up there with Milzy boasting a .938 save percentage.

Yes, Lil Milzy has looked good lately, but can you really trust the same netminder who was benched in favor of a freshman midway through the season, and was relegated to third string a little more than a month ago?

No, I’ll take Sullivan.

Don’t get me wrong, the Hockey East tournament is about as wide open as Wes Welker was when he dropped that 2nd and 11 pass . . .. Too soon? But, I’ll take the unit who’s been hot against the top teams. I’ll take the goalie who doesn’t nickname himself via Twitter. I’ll take Maine.

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