Columnists, Sports

Two-Minute Drill: The importance of Thanksgiving in the NHL

PHOTO COURTESY WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
The NHL rewards teams that play well in October and November. PHOTO COURTESY WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Despite the fact that only 23.7 percent of NHL players are from the United States, the American holiday Thanksgiving serves as a landmark date on the hockey calendar.

Dating back to the 2009 season, roughly 75 percent of teams in the playoff structure on Thanksgiving have been in the postseason come mid-April.

Year after year in the NHL, teams that come out of the gate firing through Turkey Day are primed to make the postseason. The lack of movement in the standings is unparalleled in any other sport. To make matters more confusing, because goals are so arbitrary in hockey, the best team does not always win.

In the NHL, a team’s progress through the first quarter of the season is quite indicative of what is to come during the last four-plus months of the schedule. In hockey, unlike football, baseball and basketball, there is a point system that rewards a team with one point for a tie after regulation.

In other sports, teams that start the season with early struggles often have plenty of time to work out the kinks. The typical fan always says, “Don’t worry, it’s early.”

Teams that are in the MLB playoff structure at the end of May only make the playoffs approximately 55 percent of the time, according to standings from 2009 to 2015 seasons. Yes, the baseball season is longer, but the same 28 percent of the schedule taken from the hockey example is still used for this analogy.

In the NFL, some of the best teams find a way to vastly under-perform through the first quarter of the season, which doesn’t stop them from catapulting back into the top of the playoff picture by January. Last NFL season, after a slow 1-2 start where the Green Bay Packers were outscored by a combined 32 points, Aaron Rodgers told fans to “relax,” which led to a bounce-back 12-4 final record.

In the AFC in 2014, many were signaling the end of Tom Brady’s career after a 27-point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and a sluggish 2-2 start. The Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl and finished with a 15-4 overall record.

The point remains: the start to a NHL season for whatever reason is extremely important in predicting one’s overall record for the season. Many hockey fans don’t give full attention to the games until the playoff race heats up. However, the battle for a playoff position in November proves to be even more important than winning games in March and April.

The shape of the standings by Thanksgiving is starting to gain relevance in the hockey community because teams have recognized the difficulty of winning two points in the latter portions of the year.

The surprising start to the 2015-16 season highlighted the inept scoring of the Anaheim Ducks and the devastating injuries of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Both teams finished in the top three in their conference last year, but are shockingly out of the Thanksgiving playoff picture and have long roads to climb to get into the playoffs.

The Montreal Canadiens have the most points in the NHL, even though reigning Vezina and Hart Trophy winner Carey Price is out for the majority of the season due to injury. Undrafted goaltender Mike Condon, who didn’t get much time at Princeton University until his senior year, has lived one of the best underdog stories in the league.

The Boston Bruins, who pride themselves on a defensively-rooted mindset, are eighth in the Eastern Conference, only because they boast the top power play in the league. With a 31.4 power play conversion percentage on the season, the Bruins are dominating on the man-advantage.

Regardless of some early season surprises, the standings are a good barometer for where teams are, not just record-wise, but more importantly talent-wise. In 2013-14, the Colorado Avalanche had the second-best record in the Western Conference and were expected to improve last season. However, by Thanksgiving they had the second-worst record in the West, and by the end of the season they could not dig themselves back up into the playoff picture.

Even while early season trends are impossible to believe, the NHL has continually proven that teams that play the best in October and November will be at the top come March and April. Though late-season games are the most entertaining, the ones at the beginning of the season are more important.

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