The prospect of the Boston winter typically brings a grimace to the face of area students, especially those who come from warmer climates. Many imagine they will be faced with bone-chilling, toe-numbing snowstorms and winds as they trudge to their classes.
Perhaps, but Massachusetts winters fluctuate considerably – leaving even long-term Boston residents wondering what lies in store for this season.
Already this winter has varied greatly, ranging from almost nine inches of snow blanketing Boston on December 9 to temperatures soaring into the 50’s on December 24.
While this may confuse residents and, until recently, even Meteorologists, the development of new technology has enabled experts to better forcast the entire winter season.
They predict this winter will be a cold and snowy one for Boston and the rest of New England.
Alex Sosnowski, a senior forensic meteorologist at AccuWeather.com, a weather website based in State College, Penn., said he expects most of January to be warmer than other Januaries past, and he predicts a shift to cooler weather come February and March.
“Temperatures will average above normal for the next two to three weeks, which may tend to favor rain over snow for the same period,” Sosnowski said. “We still anticipate temperatures averaging a couple degrees below normal, and precipitation probably averaging near normal overall for this winter.”
On average, Sosnowski said Boston sees approximately 40 inches of snow in a season, and the city already received about a foot of snow so far – roughly one-fourth to one-third of the average.
Consequently, Boston should expect around 50 inches of snow and temperatures two or three degrees below the average high of 38 in Boston, Sosnowski continued.
Each year, meteorologists are often left scratching their heads when trying to predict Boston’s upcoming winter season.
However, the use of efficient computer programs, or models, that decipher oceanic water temperature trends has assisted the job of meteorologists in recent years.
In addition, the development of superior computer systems used to detect weather patterns has rapidly replaced older computer models in recent years, drastically improving short-term weather forecasting.
Bill Evans, a meteorologist for WABC-TV in New York, said most meteorologists analyze 10 to 12 weather models’ similarities and discrepancies to conclude on a forecast. When snow storms approach the Boston area, meteorologists analyze models for hours trying to devise a reliable forecast, Evans added.
Once confined to only a five-day weather outlook, with increased technology combined with analysis of older weather models, meteorologists have gradually expanded their forecasts to include a seven- to ten-day outlook, said Evans. AccuWeather now offers a 15-day forecast on its website.
These advances have, also, made the meteorology industry more accurate in identifying advanced warnings.
According to Evans, meteorologists had warned Gulf Coast citizens of the high probability of a direct impact from the storm five days before Hurricane Katrina, which resulted in more than one thousand deaths and billions of dollars in damages.