The end of the regular season is looming over Northeast college hockey powers, but the Hockey East playoff picture is still just as foggy as Conte Forum during a warm day in early December.
The entire league still has a weekend set to play — minus No. 5 Boston University (18-6-9, 13-5-8 Hockey East) and Northeastern University (8-13-5, 12-16-5), who will finish off their regular seasons tonight at Matthews Arena (7:30 p.m., CN8). But as the 2006-07 campaign winds down, each game has the ability to turn the conference ladder upside down.
The only two seeds have been locked up heading into the league’s final week are top-ranked No. 3 University of New Hampshire and seventh-seeded Northeastern. But just because the Huskies’ playoff fate is already decided doesn’t mean that tonight’s matchup doesn’t have serious implications for those near the top of the Hockey East food chain.
With 34 points heading into tonight, the Terriers will almost definitely need a win tonight to keep their grip on the second slot.
With the combination of Saturday night’s 3-2 loss to the Catamounts and No. 9/11 Boston College’s weekend sweep of UMass-Lowell, the Terriers relinquished their ability to control their own destiny. Now, whether the Terriers end up getting second or third rests in a number of possible scenarios:
BU will help itself tremendously with a win on the road tonight. But if the Terriers get upset by the Huskies, it would take a New Hampshire sweep of BC in their two-game set for the Terriers to clinch second place and guarantee a quarterfinal matchup against Northeastern.
If BU wins tonight, the club will be rooting for New Hampshire to hold the Eagles to no more than two points on the weekend. Even if the Terriers win, a BC win and tie in the home-and-home series would vault the Eagles into second and leave the Terriers to battle the likes of either No. 11/9 Maine, No. 16 University of Massachusetts-Amherst or No. 15 Vermont at home in the quarterfinals.
And while the Eagles have successfully clinched quarterfinal home ice advantage, just as BU and New Hampshire have, BC still faces the possibility of falling to the fourth slot. Regardless of BU’s performance, the Eagles clinch at least the third seed with just one point in their final two games. But if BC is swept in its final pair of games, the squad’s seeding would depend on the results another crucial matchup — a head-to-head battle for possible home ice between Maine and UMass-Amherst, who are tied with 29 points apiece.
If UNH and UMass both sweep this weekend, the top four teams would be New Hampshire, BU, UMass-Amherst and BC, respectively. (BC and UMass would be tied with 33 points, with the Minutemen winning the tiebreaker for their season series win. If Maine sweeps, BC would finish third and Maine fourth.)
But the Catamounts, fresh off a big win in Agganis Arena, trail the Minutemen and the Black Bears by a only one point heading into their weekend set with UMass-Lowell, who will be fighting its own playoff life.
So with the unfathomable amount of combinations that would juggle the fourth, fifth and sixth seeds among Maine, UMass-Amherst and Vermont, it’s best to just know the basics:
None of the three can finish higher than fourth.
None can finish lower than sixth.
If Vermont sweeps, UMass-Amherst must sweep to get fourth.
If Vermont and UMass-Amherst end up in a draw, tiebreaker rules say Vermont wins the higher seed.
If Vermont and Maine end up in a tie, Maine wins the higher seed.
If Maine and UMass-Amherst split and end up in a tie for points, Maine will win the season series and claim the higher seed. But the Black Bears and the Minutemen don’t have to split — any way that Maine can secure two points will win them the better seed.
And if the Terriers do miss second place and end up behind the Eagles, it could mean trouble for BU. No matter which team finishes sixth, BU will be guaranteed to face a tough opponent. Maine seems to have recovered from its midseason slide, while UMass-Amherst has played tough against the Terriers in all three bouts, finishing 0-1-2 against BU. Then there is Vermont, who proved this past weekend it can topple the Terriers at Agganis.
New Hampshire’s opponent depends on the Providence’s performance against an out-of-contention Warriors club. If the Friars earn at least two points, or if they secure just one and Vermont holds Lowell to three or less, the Friars will get the final seed. If PC gets swept by Merrimack College, the River Hawks would still need to steal a trio of points from the Catamounts to make the cut.
Looking at tonight’s matchup, BU has two solid wins against the cross-town club — a 4-3 win to open Hockey East play and a 4-0 victory in the first round of the Beanpot — despite the surprising play of the Huskies’ younger classes. But the two teams had a lackluster meeting in between those games, when they skated to a 0-0 draw at Agganis Arena.
But the Terriers are playing on the road, where they have lost only once all season, and a big win could be — and needs to be — in the cards.