One of the tightest and most unpredictable Oscar races in recent memory leads one to wonder exactly who are the people who hand out these prestigious golden statues and where they fit into the grand scheme of the Hollywood system:
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts ‘ Sciences (AMPAS) – The Academy is the namesake of the Academy Awards, or Oscars, and is comprised of approximately 5,730 voting members, the average age being 52 and the number spreading far and wide over many aspects of the production process. AMPAS, broken down into occupations and categories, is structured in membership as follows: 1315 actors, 459 producers, 430 executives, 409 writers, 409 sound personnel, 368 public relations personnel, 364 art directors, 364 directors, 362 members-at-large (not fitting into any specific category), 299 short film helmsmen, 247 music composers and lyricists, 217 visual effects personnel, 216 film editors, 170 cinematographers and 110 documentarians.
The Nomination Process – It’s interesting to note that nominations for individual categories (such as Best Director) are only decided by members from the respective departments, even though everyone gets to offer their two cents on Best Picture nominees. This fact provides an even greater argument for the power of the guilds, especially the Screen Actor’s Guild, which accounts for approximately one third of the entire AMPAS voting bloc.
Screen Actor’s Guild (SAG) – The massive and influential Screen Actor’s Guild, which has become so popular that it now broadcasts its own awards show on TNT, is one of the most important of all Oscar precursors, usually an extremely accurate barometer for predicting acting victories come Oscar night.
This year’s major film recipients were Halle Berry (Actress, “Monster’s Ball”), Russell Crowe (Actor, “A Beautiful Mind”), Ian McKellen (Supporting Actor, “The Fellowship of the Ring”), Helen Mirren (Supporting Actress, “Gosford Park”) and “Gosford Park” (Ensemble Cast).
Writer’s Guild of America (WGA) – The centerpiece of constant controversy over writer’s rights, the WGA has also come under fire for the endless technicalities contained in its rules, some of which denied scripts like “In the Bedroom” (Todd Field and Rob Festiger) a shot at the coveted writing awards. Nonetheless, the victories remain reliable prediction tools. This year’s winners were “Gosford Park” (Julian Fellowes, Best Original Screenplay) and “A Beautiful Mind” (Akiva Golsdman, Best Adapted Screenplay).
Director’s Guild of America (DGA) – An excellent track record for predicting Oscar victories is the hallmark of the DGA, which has made the same choice as Oscar close to 92 percent of the time. But the odds have been beaten, and most recently interestingly enough by Steven Soderbergh who took home a Best Director Oscar last year by surviving a vote split (he was nominated twice) and the DGA-honored Ang Lee. Once again, is there really any way to handicap this Oscar year? Ron Howard is this year’s DGA award recipient for “A Beautiful Mind,” but it’s still a wide open field, especially since the last time Howard received the DGA honor (1995 for Apollo 13), he wasn’t even NOMINATED for an Oscar.
Producer’s Guild of America (PGA) – Another influential track record from a popular guild is good news for the Oscar chances of “Moulin Rouge,” which the PGA selected as this year’s winner. Baz Luhrmann’s splashy musical is already in the middle of a tremendous buzz ascent; could this added accolade be the last push it needs to upset its heavyweight competition in the Best Picture category?
And You Can’t Forget…The good old Golden Globes, which in recent years have transformed from a laughably inane three hours on par with the People’s Choice Awards to a serious awards banquet that kicks of the awards season and lets many of the Oscar hopefuls fall into place.
The Bottom Line – In an awards year with as many surprises and uncertainties as there are guilds and awards ceremonies to fight over them, the term “anybody’s guess” is becoming more of an accurate description by the hour.