• A Beautiful Mind • Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring • Gosford Park • In the Bedroom • Moulin Rouge
With the exception of the overrated, overblown “Moulin Rouge,” all of the nominees represent a wide range of 2001’s best work: everything from a witty, original ensemble piece to a hard hitting emotional roller coaster about loss to a feel-good, triumph of the will humanity story to a thrilling fantasy epic in a class with “Star Wars.” In the end ,however, the top category is yet another three-way showdown, as “Gosford Park” and “In the Bedroom” have fallen behind the buzz machine and will be either be rewarded in other categories (“Park”) or were so small and decidedly atypical that a nomination is reward enough (“Bedroom,” even though it is still 2001’s best film).
That said, the remaining three films have made this the most interesting and difficult-to-predict Picture race in years. While to some “Moulin Rouge” is little more than a celluloid mess, the film has a legion of followers devoted to its visual and artistic merits that have catapulted it to the forefront; it currently has the most rapidly increasing buzz.
However, the real race is still between Peter Jackson’s first installment of “Lord of the Rings,” which at one point seemed unbeatable, and Ron Howard’s “Beautiful” emotional wallop, which by successful campaigning, riveting performances and capitalizing on the Academy’s need to choose drama over bombast in the wake of last year’s “Gladiator” victory, is currently the frontrunner. Be that as it may, the politics machine has turned its back on “A Beautiful Mind,” hitting it with everything from a supposed smear campaign to questions about the accuracy of its controversial subject matter. While a”Beautiful” victory is nearly secured, expect its backlash to combine with a late breaking surge for “Rings” and thus expect hobbits to storm the acceptance podium at about the three-and-a-half hour mark come Oscar night.
WILL WIN: In a photo finish, The Fellowship of the Ring SHOULD WIN: The Fellowship of the Ring REALISTIC UPSET: Moulin Rouge