Statistics are an integral part of sports. From the guy down the street with a fantasy football team, to the dedicated and involved team executive, virtually everyone who thinks about sports uses statistics, either to form and support an opinion or to make an informed decision.
By their very nature, statistics provide their most complete picture of events at the end of the season. Given the basic assumption that results have some correlation with the skills of the parties involved, more complete data gives any fan an improved understanding of teams’ and players’ true abilities.
The beginning of the season, of course, is the exact opposite. The observer only has two types of details to work with when forming an opinion: data from the previous season and personnel changes from one year to the next. Evaluating early season results can be an exercise in guesswork.
With this in mind, consider the Boston University men’s soccer team’s season to date. On one hand, the team has a not-so-pretty 0-2-1 record after three games – the middle game being an epic collapse against UMass that approached a perfect 10 on the “I can’t believe that just happened” scale. On the other hand, the Terriers were competitive against three ranked teams, including a scoreless draw Sunday against No. 3 UConn in Storrs, Conn.
Both the positive and negative opinions of BU’s performance to date have some degree of validity. However, a well-reasoned evaluation of BU’s play this season must consider multiple factors beyond just record, including the team’s strength of schedule. Complicating the matter is the lack of available data at this early stage.
But first things first: some benchmark of what constitutes a successful season would be helpful. In the America East era — that is, beginning with the 1996 season — the Terriers have finished four games above .500, on average. More importantly, the Terriers have reached the NCAA Tournament three times during that stretch, with their most recent appearance coming via an at-large bid last season.
Last year’s at-large bid indicated an improved quality of play in America East, so while BU’s 13-5-1 mark from 2001 might be out of reach this year, the Terriers probably won’t need such a strong record in order to reach the NCAAs. (Surprisingly, the 2001 team failed to qualify for the tournament).
Given the knowledge that finishing a few games above .500 with a strong strength of schedule ought to be enough to reach the NCAAs, an 0-2-1 start isn’t necessarily the end of the world. Last year’s Terrier squad started the season off 2-3-0 against comparatively weaker competition before rebounding with a strong midseason run. BU was also tournament-bound in 2004 despite losing four straight to begin the campaign.
As mentioned before, the Terriers’ strong play works in their favor as well. BU was three seconds away from evening its record with a win at home before the Minutemen’s Prince Ofosu shocked the home crowd with a game-tying goal. The Terriers also managed to slow the dangerous UConn offense down in the second half on Sunday. Playing well against tough competition should translate into wins later in the season.
But are the Terriers’ early season opponents really as strong as their rankings suggest? This early in the season, the only honest answer is: maybe. While polls aren’t necessarily indicative of future results — look at last year’s weekly college football polls if you need an example — the people responsible for voting in the polls generally had a good idea of the relative strength of the teams in question. Then again, BU’s three opponents haven’t lit the world on fire so far this season — UConn, UMass and Boston College are a combined 4-2-2 when facing teams other than the Terriers.
In the end, what we have is a combination of facts, opinions and counterfactual statements. The Terriers have played well at times, but remain winless. BU was seconds away from making a strong statement at home against a ranked rival, but it didn’t. The amount of weight to give to the formidable strength of schedule depends on how formidable the schedule really is, which, in turn, depends on the degree of trust placed in early season polls.
Some of the available evidence points to a strong men’s soccer team that will run through the America East Conference like a knife through butter. Other evidence suggests the Terriers will struggle to win games against difficult competition. As often seems to happen, the most likely outcome is somewhere in between.
BU men’s soccer isn’t a powerhouse — look to the women’s team if you want to see dominance. Nor are coach Neil Roberts’ troops incapable of hanging with difficult opposition. Until the games are played and the Terriers’ fortunes migrate in one direction or the other, all a fan can do is sit and wait — and watch, of course.
Matt Whitrock, a junior in the College of Arts and Sciences, is a columnist for The Daily Free Press. He can be reached at [email protected].