Advice for the fantasy baseball fanatic

What if a baseball league existed where the wealthiest of teams were constrained by a salary cap? What if, instead of constructing a murderer’s row lineup by tossing a few million around, management had to carefully evaluate talent and make shrewd trades? What would we call such a utopia?

Fantasy baseball.

It’s that special time of year when baseball fans get to do their best Billy Beane impersonation and level the playing field with the Steinbrenners and Turners of the world. Besides, if it weren’t for fantasy leagues, what would keep you pumped up for 162 games of Kansas City Royals baseball?

You’ve got to have a strategy going into your draft, but also possess enough awareness to change on the fly, depending on what direction your draft is going. Keep in mind the new strike zone being implemented this season. Power pitchers with rising fastballs will earn more strike calls. Believe it or not, Pedro may actually be able to lower his already miniscule 1.74 ERA.

The high strike should also benefit Bartolo Colon, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Darren Dreifort. The flipside is the Braves pitching staff, which may be adversely affected if it no longer gets the ball six inches off the outside corner called. Bobby Cox lobbied against the new zone because finesse guys Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux could become mortal. If you don’t know how to evaluate a pitcher’s stats from last year, there’s a simple formula that can really help in a bind. Just add up his walks and hits allowed. Then divide that number by innings pitched. This is commonly referred to as WHIP. The lower, the better.

If you’re helplessly devoid of quality starters, go after closers early. Everybody already knows about Mariano Rivera, Derek Lowe and Robb Nen. There are some other guys out there who can close the door and rack up fantasy points. Montreal’s Ugueth Urbina has looked untouchable this spring, bouncing back from elbow surgery to strike out eight, yield no walks and allow just four hits in eight innings. He could be a real steal, especially if he’s dealt to a contender. Todd Jones of the Tigers had a career year in 2000, saving 42 of Detroit’s 79 wins.

Oakland’s Jason Isringhausen has finally found his niche. After several disappointing years with the Mets as a starter, he broke out with 33 saves last year. Toronto’s Billy Koch is a flamethrower who could put up big numbers with his 100 mile per hour heat. If you’re in a pinch, you might want to give Pittsburgh’s Mike Williams a look. It’s always a good idea to have a second closer in case of injury. A good strategy might be to monopolize one team’s save possibilities. For example, if you take Armando Benitez, try to pick up John Franco, too.

Don’t forget about guys who had off years last year or are coming back from injury. For the Astros, Billy Wagner is coming back from elbow surgery and Craig Biggio from knee surgery. Jose Lima could bounce back from his 6.65 ERA of last year and regain his 21-win form of 1999. John Smoltz is coming back from Tommy John surgery for the Braves, and Mike Lieberthal, a fantasy god in 99, is returning from elbow surgery for the Phils. Look for Juan Gonzalez to come back in a big way. After toiling in a cavernous Comerica Park, he should put up huge power numbers at the Jake where he has always thrived.

Try to take players from small markets that will make a big splash, like Vladimir Guerrero, who could contend for the triple crown. Montreal’s Jose Vidro could challenge Jeff Kent and Edgardo Alfonzo for best offense at second base in the NL. Kansas City’s Jermaine Dye, Mike Sweeney, Carlos Beltran, Joe Randa and Mark Quinn are all big-time sluggers in obscurity. Richie Sexson could hit 40 home runs for the Brewers, and Troy Glaus could hit 50 for the Angels.

What about rookies? Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki is the first Japanese position player in the big leagues. Expect him to struggle early while he adjusts to AL pitching. Scouts are saying he’s Johnny Damon with a better arm. He won seven consecutive batting titles in Japan and was a three-time MVP with a lifetime average of .353, including .387 last year. Jose Ortiz is a potential 20/20 guy at second for Oakland. Don Baylor loves outfielder Corey Patterson, and he could join the Cubs’ lineup right away. Joe Crede is a power hitting third baseman ready to step in if Herbert Perry falters at third for the White Sox. The most promising rookie pitcher may be Olympic hero Ben Sheets of Milwaukee, who has all but locked up the fifth starting job with a solid Spring Training. Other rooks to keep an eye on: Ryan “Little Unit” Anderson of Seattle, Vernon Wells of Toronto and Jimmy Rollins of Philadelphia.

Then there’s the caveat emptor category: buyer beware. Jose Canseco is probably good for 20-25 home runs and about as many trips to the disabled list. John Jaha had a huge 99 campaign but was sidelined with shoulder problems last year. Ken Caminiti could drive in a boatload of runs in Texas’ revamped lineup but he’s rarely healthy. Tom Gordon can be a dominating closer for the Cubs but has missed most of the last two years with elbow injuries. Sterling Hitchcock won’t be back until May, but he’s motivated by free agency.

Don’t forget to balance power with speed. Tony Womack, Luis Castillo, Eric Young and Roger Cedeno have wheels, but for the best power and speed combo look to Shannon Stewart, Andruw Jones or Preston Wilson.

Good luck on draft day. Unless of course, you’re in my division, in which case I suggest you draft Mo Vaughn and Juan Guzman.