“Who Will Win?” was the title of a forum held at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government yesterday focused on the national midterm elections that will be decided in less than a week and will determine the partisan makeup of the United States Congress.
“Democrats will maintain the Senate by one seat,” predicted political scholar Norm Ornstein, who is affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute. “We’re all waiting to see if there’s a wind blowing in the last few days of the election that gets one party’s active voters out and gets the others depressed” he continued, acknowledging the large number of tight races occurring in many states.
Co-sponsored by several Harvard political groups including the Harvard College Republicans and the Harvard College Democrats, the discussion was moderated by Dan Glickman, director of the Institute of Politics and former member of the House of Representatives (1977-1995).
Ornstein, Time Magazine columnist Margaret Carlson and Susan Hirschman, Chief of Staff to Majority Whip Tom Delay, all spoke at the forum, which began with a series of video clips paying homage to Sen. Paul Wellstone, who died in a plane crash last week along with members of his family and two pilots. Wellstone was praised by members of the panel as having been a man of principle and conviction — a politician who truly loved his job.
The speakers concluded former vice president Walter Mondale, who has replaced Wellstone on the Democratic ticket, will achieve victory.
“The Republicans are screwed in this situation” Ornstein said, citing a combination of Mondale’s appeal and the emotional aspects of Wellstone’s untimely death.
Glickman steered the panel to a discussion of general politics.
“Do you care who wins the elections? And if you do, then who will win the elections?” he asked the members of the forum.
The panel agreed the national political climate has changed as Democrats have moved toward the right and Republicans toward the left. This is due to the “instinct of politicians to protect themselves, which makes it so that you can not tell what they really stand for,” according to Glickman.
“The Senate is like a cheap mattress with everyone rolled in the middle because that’s the safe place to be,” Carlson said, claiming that affects the ambiguity of campaigns and the trend of low voter turnout all across America.
Negative television advertisements play a large part in close elections between the two parties. These “save your ass ads,” as Ornstein described them, are meant to defend politicians against their opponent’s negative advertisements while hopefully turning the tide in their favor during the remaining days of their campaign.
“If your opponent runs a negative add against you and you don’t respond in time, there’s a word for you … it’s called loser,” he added, explaining the abundance of these ads.
Glickman focused on low voter turnout, specifically regarding the youth of America, and pointed to the targeting of older adults by political campaigns.
“Why would you be interested in the election unless you’re on Lipitor or on Social Security?” he asked, referring to the issue of Social Security and prescription drugs, which are major aspects of many campaigns this November.
The panel decided the Massachusetts gubernatorial election between Democrat Shannon O’Brien and Republican Mitt Romney is too close to call.
It “depends on turnout and the independent vote” Glickman said.
Student Tom Medonix asked how the midterm elections will affect President Bush and his chances for re-election.
Hirshmann, a Republican herself, answered.
“The most important thing for us is to keep the house,” she said.
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