Who is the American League Most Valuable Player? You’ve probably heard anyone and everyone offer up their opinion on this question, and in the end, I’m sure only two names have been mentioned: David Ortiz of the Boston Red Sox and Alex Rodriguez of the New York Yankees.
When we look to the statistics these two have put up, we see pretty similar players. David Ortiz leads A-Rod in RBI (148 to 130) and walks (100 to 91). On the other hand, A-Rod leads Ortiz in home runs (48 to 47), runs scored (124 to 118), batting average (.322 to .300), on-base percentage (.440 to .395), slugging percentage (.613 to .604), on-base plus slugging (1.036 to .999) and – obviously – stolen bases (21 to 1).
Clearly, these two players’ offensive stats are too close to definitively say that one is better than the other. If you had to give one player the nod for overall offensive greatness, it would have to be Rodriguez, who leads in the most telling category of a great hitter, OPS (on-base plus slugging). But there are other factors that must be considered when trying to determine who should be the MVP, and these factors clearly point to Rodriguez.
In order to understand why A-Rod is the MVP and Ortiz is not, you have to understand the nature of each player’s respective position. Ortiz is a designated hitter, unarguably the easiest position in baseball, because anyone can play it as long as he can hit. Rodriguez, meanwhile, plays third base, a moderately difficult defensive position.
So obviously Rodriguez has the edge in the defensive department because he actually plays defense. But the real reason being a third-baseman is more beneficial in the MVP race is spelled out below.
A good way to measure the value of a player is to compare him to all possible replacements. For Ortiz, this comparison is easy, since every slugger in Major League Baseball could, in theory, replace him position-wise. Therefore, the next best player to fill Ortiz’s shoes would actually be Rodriguez. And as the stats show, this is hardly a drop-off. Don’t get me wrong, Ortiz is much better than the average power hitter, but there are other players that could match his production in the DH spot.
On the other hand, Rodriguez is head-and-shoulders above all of his possible replacements. Even his closest competition at third base in both leagues, Morgan Ensberg of the Houston Astros, pales in comparison. Ensberg hit 36 home runs, had 100 RBI and had a .945 OPS. Good stats – until you compare them to the 48 homeruns, 130 RBI and 1.036 OPS of Rodriguez.
This drop-off is the true reason why Rodriguez is the AL MVP and David Ortiz is not. While Big Papi is not easily replaceable, the Red Sox could find someone with similar numbers to be their DH if given the choice of any major league ballplayer. The Yankees, however, would have to settle for a notably less productive player to play third base.
There are many other reasons that support why Rodriguez should be the MVP and many of them come from in-depth statistics. Win shares, perhaps the most complicated statistic in baseball (but also perhaps best at showing the value of a player), shows a big gap between Rodriguez and Ortiz.
While I won’t explain exactly what win shares are in this article, (It would likely take up this whole page, so if you’re interested, Google it.) I’ll just say it measures how many wins a player earns for his team. This stat, therefore, is the best way to choose who should be MVP. Rodriguez leads the American League in win shares, while Ortiz doesn’t even lead his own team, trailing Manny Ramirez.
So is Ortiz’s timely hitting enough to overcome this huge disadvantage? Consider that although clutch hits are exciting, in the long run, a solo homer in the third inning is just as meaningful as one hit in the eighth. In the end, baseball is all about scoring more runs than your opponent. And even if you still think his “clutchness” is enough to carry him through the MVP voting, remember the game-saving defensive plays A-Rod has come up with in the last few weeks to rescue the Yankees, not to mention his own string of hits under pressure. They may not be as numerous as Big Papi’s, but they do exist.
There is no argument that Ortiz has been the most feared late-inning hitter this season, but this award is for the Most Valuable Player. And this year, that player has been Alex Rodriguez.
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