Inside Soccer

As the regular season ended yesterday and the conference playoff picture crystalized, the view was far from what the coaches’ crystal balls revealed before the season. The preseason No. 4 tore through the conference, while the No. 1 barely crawled into the tournament.

Here’s the lowdown on the wide open America East Conference Tournament and who will find their way to the NCAA College Cup Tournament:

Game 1: No. 5 University at Albany at No. 4 University of Vermont: Vermont

With a 4-3-1 conference record highlighted by a 4-0 smackdown on the second-seeded University of Maryland-Baltimore County, Vermont is our pick for the mostly likely team to win three games. The Catamounts are the most dangerous squad in the America East tournament without a first-round bye, gracing the nation’s top 20 six times on the season.

Although Vermont boasts freshman forward Jordan Crasilneck, whose 0.59 assists per game puts him 12th in the nation, the Catamounts should watch out for the bite of the Great Danes’ bench. Substitutes have notched at least one goal in each of Albany’s last four wins.

Game 2: No. 6 Boston University at No. 3 Binghamton University: Binghamton

In a rematch of today’s 1-0 overtime Bearcat victory, goals will be at a premium. With Binghamton’s stingy defense (No. 11 in the nation with a team goals-against average of .62) up against the Terriers’ stagnant offense, the Terriers won’t be able to sneak through the back door into the second round.

The Bearcats have a force off the bench in Matt Narode. For Narode, it’s either over the goal or into it – the sophomore back has six scores on six shots on goal. The Bearcats also boast goalkeeper Ryan Bertoni, who held the Terriers scoreless for over 92 minutes yesterday.

The Bearcats shouldn’t take the Terriers’ scoring drought for granted, though. Three goals off last year’s pace, senior Sedrick Chin (4 goals) is due to score, as is sophomore Roland Erlichman, last season’s leading scorer.

Semifinal 1: No. 4 Vermont (projected) at No. 1 Stony Brook University: Stony Brook

The Catamounts may not have the firepower to keep up with the top-seeded Seawolves, who boast three of the top four America East players in points per game, No. 2 in goals per game and three of the top four in assists per game.

Chris Megaloudis and Michael Palacio account for more than a third of the team’s goals (11) and nearly half of the team’s assists (15).

Vermont has a chance to stifle the Seawolves’ offensive unit as they almost did in their Oct. 22 matchup, losing just 1-0, but that probably won’t be enough to keep Stony Brook out of the finals.

Semifinal 2: No. 3 Binghamton (projected) at No. 2 UMBC: UMBC

This is the team to beat in this year’s America East tournament. With rookie standout Steve King behind them, the Retrievers are posed to make a run through the title game and into the NCAAs. King’s national fourth-best goals-against average (0.47) allows the team to hold the nation’s 16th-best shutout percentage (0.53).

The Retrievers’ 3-2 double-overtime loss to Stony Brook cost them the top seed and the regular-season conference title, but don’t expect that to stop them from ending Binghamton’s season.

America East Championship Game: No. 2 UMBC (projected) at No. 1 Stony Brook (projected): UMBC

It’s only natural that the league’s top scorers (Stony Brook) are matched up with the league’s best netminder (UMBC). Equally speedy in the offensive third, the two teams will look toward defense to win this contest.

Look for the rookie King and 6-foot-4 veteran defender Marcus Gross to bounce back from yesterday’s double-overtime loss and find redemption in the biggest game of the season.