WHITROCK: Predictions of little value

Tomorrow night, the America East Men’s Basketball Tournament commences with that most wonderful of events ‘-‘- the play-in game. There’s nothing quite like watching the bottom-feeders of a conference fight valiantly but poorly for the right to face the well-rested and more skilled top seed less than 24 hours later.

Sure, there’s always a chance the play-in game winner could ride its momentum from the previous day and upset the top seed. BU suffered that fate in 2004, losing to eighth-seeded Stony Brook University in the quarterfinals, despite hosting the tournament.

There are seven more games after the play-in game, making for a conveniently sized exercise in predicting winners. It’s the madness before March Madness. Here are all the answers ‘-‘- until proven otherwise, of course.

Hartford and Maine bump heads tomorrow night. Most teams alternate between periods of good play and bad play, but the Hawks’ two modes of operation have been bad and worse. Forcing overtime in Agganis Arena on Sunday was entirely out of character.

Maine isn’t playing particularly well either, and Hartford’s Dan Leibovitz is widely regarded as one of the friendliest coaches you’ll ever meet, but I can’t justify picking a team with 14 consecutive losses to win a game, even the play-in game. Maine by five.

As Friday turns to Saturday and the tournament really gets under way, fans in attendance should prepare to see an impossibly large number of people wearing purple shirts, purple face paint and even purple afros. Albany fans are loud and passionate and should provide their team with a much-needed home-court advantage. Whether the other attendees can tolerate them is another question entirely.

Playing at the SEFCU Arena gives the Great Danes some hope against two-seed Vermont, but the Catamounts are likely to be heavy favorites if everyone is healthy. Then again, health is a major question for Vermont. Mike Trimboli, the Catamounts’ star guard, missed the season finale with an undisclosed illness and did not travel with the team to Maine last weekend. I expect Vermont to win on Saturday with or without Trimboli, but the task will be much harder should he be sidelined.

The second game of the afternoon session promises to be exciting, as five-seed Stony Brook meets four-seed New Hampshire just six days after the Wildcats edged the Seawolves in overtime. Terrier fans may hold Stony Brook in higher regard due to the Seawolves’ recent success against BU, but New Hampshire matches up well against Stony Brook. In a battle of success stories, expect promising freshman Tommy Brenton to be a major factor on the glass in a hard-fought win for the Seawolves.

When the evening session begins, the Terriers will finally take the floor. On the other side will be UMBC, perhaps the only team more reliant on its starters than BU. Jay Greene excels as a pure point guard and Darryl Proctor provides plenty of offense, but the Retrievers don’t have much in the way of complementary threats.

I expect the Terriers to advance to the semifinals for one simple reason: shooting. BU swept the Retrievers this season despite posting an effective field-goal percentage below .500 in each game. The Terriers normally shoot significantly better than that; the Retrievers’ defense of shooters is usually much worse. Even if BU underperforms in one area, probable improvement from the field should make up the difference.

Regardless of whether Maine or Hartford advances to the quarterfinals, top-seed Binghamton should be more than capable of reaching the next round. The Bearcats will be well-rested and have far more firepower than either of their possible opponents.

We now turn to the semifinals, with BU running into its least favorite opponent ‘-‘- the Catamounts. While the Terriers have played reasonably well against Vermont in the first half of games, the Catamounts have outscored BU by more than a two-to-one margin in the second halves. Even if Trimboli doesn’t play, Vermont presents numerous matchup problems for the Terriers. Unfortunately, I think BU goes home here.

A Binghamton-Stony Brook matchup on Sunday presents an interesting in-state pairing for the late game. The Bearcats have made a habit of winning close games. Stony Brook has seen its fair share of nail-biters as well. For almost four months, the Seawolves have been fighting for respect. Once preseason doormats, they’re now dark-horse contenders. Stony Brook is battle-tested, and even if it hasn’t won all those battles, the pieces are in place to win this one. On Sunday, the Bearcats’ luck finally runs out.

One technical upset (five-seed over four-seed) and one major one put Stony Brook in the final against Vermont for a matchup of two teams whose records sell them short. The Seawolves and Catamounts played seven overtime games combined this season, producing just one win ‘-‘- and that win came at Stony Brook’s expense. The Seawolves lost a heartbreaker in Burlington on Feb. 15th.

Not quite one month after the Seawolves’ second loss to Vermont, the America East Championship will produce a third. The Catamounts’ senior class has let close game after close game slip away over the past few seasons. If good fortune is going to arrive in Burlington for them, it has to be this year, but I hope it isn’t.