Ever since the first scouting visit, whispers have been heard all across the country. Can his fastball really be that fast? Is he the next Nolan Ryan or a flameout waiting to happen? Are the stories true?
Nothing a pitcher can do thrills a scout more than putting up a big number on a radar gun ‘- and big numbers are precisely what San Diego State University pitcher Stephen Strasburg posts. His four-seam fastball clocks in at 103 mph. In just over 63 innings, he has struck out 121 batters and walked just 12. Even the mythical Sidd Finch would blush.
Finch may be a mere April Fools’ joke, but when Major League Baseball teams discuss Strasburg’s potential, nobody is laughing. While scouts are awed by the SDSU junior’s impressive arsenal of tools, general managers ponder the possibility of drafting him.
His potential is undeniable. The potential cost, however, is sobering. Strasburg’s agent is the infamous Scott Boras, well-known for his aggressive negotiating tactics. Given Strasburg’s status as the overwhelming favorite to be picked first overall in the MLB First-Year Player Draft this June, Boras has ample time to prepare his strategy for extracting a lucrative contract from the Washington Nationals, holders of that first overall pick.
Boras will have incredible leverage. Per draft rules, the team that selects Strasburg must sign him by Aug. 15 or surrender his rights. If Strasburg goes unsigned, he can return to the Aztecs for his senior season and wait to be drafted next year. Furthermore, if a team fails to sign Strasburg this year after picking him, that team is unable to draft him, let alone sign him the following year, unless Strasburg consents.
All of this begs the question: Just how much is an amateur pitcher, albeit a dominant one, really worth? Although sabermetrics have made leaps and bounds in generating projections for baseball players, these projections fail to protect a team from the volatility associated with prospects. Flamethrowers who find substantial success in the big leagues are far outnumbered by those who fail to make it that far or break down shortly after arrival.
There is always a cautionary tale. For Strausburg, one particular case strikes close to home. Consider a recent, highly acclaimed power arm to emerge from the San Diego area, drafted second overall in 2001, before reaching the big leagues in May of 2002. By 2003, his first full major league season, the 6-foot-5-inch right-hander was a legitimate candidate for the Cy Young Award.
If Mark Prior’s star rose rapidly, it fell even faster. 2004 and 2005 saw Prior pitch effectively between stints on the disabled list. In 2006, Prior compiled an ugly 7.21 ERA in just 43.2 innings pitched. He hasn’t been seen in the major leagues since.
Of course, Prior’s fate doesn’t necessarily have any bearing on Strasburg’s future. It does, however, help provide an upper bound for the contract he can expect to be offered. Generally speaking, even the top players selected in the First-Year Player Draft sign for contracts worth no more than $10 million total. Strasburg’s billing as a once-in-a-generation caliber prospect may allow him to stretch that limit, but injury risk acts as a salary constraint.
Assuming someone manages to ink Strasburg, one has to wonder how rapid his ascent will be. Talent alone isn’t enough to carry a player through the minor leagues, and unless the signing team considers it wise to throw its prized asset into the fire immediately, Strasburg will have to wait before joining the big club. Timing plays an important role.
Consider the Baltimore Orioles’ stud catching prospect, Matt Wieters. Although Wieters is widely considered to be one of the best catchers in all of baseball ‘- Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system considers his expected 2009 performance to be worth 7.9 wins above replacement level; by that metric, only Joe Mauer produced more value at the catcher position in 2008.
Baltimore’s starting catcher is Gregg Zaun, who was worth one win above replacement last year. By any reasonable measure, Wieters is the superior player. Yet Wieters started the year with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk, Va., because of contract considerations. Spending a minimum of 12 days in the minor leagues before being called up gives the Orioles an additional year of control over Wieters before he becomes free agent-eligible. Financial considerations trump all.
Strasburg is scheduled to start Friday. With every blistering pitch, he risks the destruction of his multi-million dollar arm. His head coach ‘- Tony Gwynn, another high-profile baseball player with connections to San Diego ‘- emphasizes pitching to contact when appropriate in order to keep Strasburg’s pitch count under control, but the danger is unavoidable.
Major league future or not, Strasburg is a unique talent, a power pitcher with an impossibly fast heater and a devastating curveball to match. Even if Friday’s start is the one where his arm succumbs to physics, the legend is already in place, gift-wrapped for retelling to wide-eyed children and grandchildren alike. One can only hope his arm survives the trip intact.
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