Mass. gubernatorial race still tight, poll finds

The Massachusetts gubernatorial election is a dead heat between Gov. Deval Patrick and Republican challenger Charlie Baker, according to a new poll.

The Rasmussen Reports survey results, released Wednesday, show Patrick drawing 35 percent of likely voters compared to Baker’s 32 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. State treasurer Tim Cahill, running as an independent, is in third with 19 percent. 14 percent of those surveyed were undecided.

If businessman Christy Mihos were to capture the Republican nomination, the poll showed him winning over 19 percent of those surveyed, with Cahill at 30 percent and Patrick at 34 percent.

Rasmussen Reports President Scott Rasmussen said in a telephone interview with The Daily Free Press that the election was all about Patrick.

“Patrick is like incumbents everywhere, struggling because of the difficult economy,” Rasmussen said.

However, for the governor, having two challengers in the general election is better than one, Rasmussen said.

“It’s going to be difficult for him to win in a head-to-head, two-way matchup, but if the race stays in a three-way configuration, he has a very good chance of surviving,” Rasmussen said. “Cahill is probably taking more votes from the anti-Patrick side than the other.”

Rasmussen compared this race to the 2009 campaign for governor in New Jersey, in which Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, struggling with low approval ratings, faced off against Republican U.S. Attorney Chris Christie and a formidable independent candidate in Chris Daggett.

Daggett reached 20 percent in some polls as late as October, but only won about 6 percent of the vote as Christie ultimately defeated Corzine.

“At the end of the day, voters in New Jersey split away, and they voted for either Corzine or Christie,” Rasmussen said. “If one candidate begins to fall behind in the final days before election day, that candidate’s supporters will have to make a choice.”

Baker campaign spokesman Rick Gorka called the poll’s results a good sign for the former Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO.

“It shows the momentum of Charlie’s campaign and it illustrates that the governor’s last three and a half years of the tax and spend policy are not that popular,” Gorka said.

The Patrick campaign also said it saw the poll as positive, but downplayed its importance.

“While we are pleased that all of the polls show us continuously as the frontrunner, this upcoming election is about far more than what the pollsters and the pundits say,” said Patrick spokesman Alex Goldstein in an email.

Cahill, a 1981 graduate of Boston University’s College of Arts and Sciences, said in a telephone interview that he is taking the poll results with a grain of salt. He said Rasmussen polls tend to have a Republican slant and that other polls have placed him in first or second.

“With eight months to go, I’m still in the mix,” he said. “I think I’ve got as good a shot as anyone.”

Cahill also said that he relishes the underdog role and prefers it to that of frontrunner, arguing that being in the lead early on did not end up benefiting Attorney General Martha Coakley in her failed U.S. Senate bid.

“I like where I am. I wouldn’t want to be in first place at this point, I would have a giant bull’s-eye on my back,” he said. “When you’re in first place you can get complacent and we saw that with Martha Coakley.”

Cahill, who switched his party registration from Democratic to independent last summer, said his not running as a Democratic or Republican will be a plus with voters.

“I think people are looking for something different,” he said. “They are frustrated and angry at the endless party squabbling.”