Poll show Mass gov. race may come down to wire

Gov. Deval Patrick continues to hold a slim lead over his Republican rival, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found.

Thirty-nine percent of likely Massachusetts voters plan on voting for Patrick this November, while 34 percent plan to vote for Republican Charlie Baker, the poll found. Eighteen percent plan on voting for Tim Cahill, an independent candidate.

Undecided voters account for most of the remaining nine percent.

But when the polling company included "leaners" &- voters who are not sure who they will choose in November, but are inclined toward one candidate &- the race tightens considerably, with Patrick having a slim advantage of 44 percent support over Baker's 42 percent.

Still, Patrick's response focused on his continued lead over Baker.

"Today's poll confirms that, despite millions spent on TV ads and negative attacks to help Baker and Cahill, the race remains the same with Governor Patrick holding the lead and Cahill's ratings remaining unchanged," said Alex Goldstein, a Patrick spokesman, in a statement.

"The returns from this poll also confirm what we have been saying all along: that this will be a close race and we fully expect both Baker and Cahill to be competitive candidates based on the millions they have already spent on television advertising."

Because the election is still eight weeks away, these numbers are likely to change. However, 64 percent of Patrick's supporters are confident in their decision to vote for the governor while 58 percent of Baker's supporters are sure that they will vote for the Republican candidate.

Only 28 percent of Cahill's supporters said they will definitely vote for him in the election. Third party candidates like Cahill typically have a decline in support as Election Day approaches, according to Rasmussen.

A July survey from Rasmussen found Patrick with a six-point lead over Baker. Rasmussen surveyed 500 likely voters in Massachusetts on Sept. 1 for the survey. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.