Poll shows steep losses for Dems nationwide

In elections across the country on Tuesday, many observers agree that the question isn’t whether Democrats will take a hit at the voting booth &- it’s how dramatic the hit will be.

A Gallup survey taken from Oct. 28 to 31 of 1,539 likely voters showed 52 to 55 percent of likely voters are leaning toward a Republican candidate in the midterm congressional elections, whereas 40 to 42 percent prefer the Democrat.

The range of Democratic defeat depends on turnout, and a higher turnout would likely help Republicans, Gallup concluded. The poll had a maximum sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Other polls show similar results. Rasmussen Reports found that 51 percent of voters preferred Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, compared with 39 percent who plan on supporting a generic Democrat.

As Rasmussen notes, if these results bear out, “it could lead to the election of more Republicans to Congress than at any time since the 1920s.”

The poll, of 3,500 likely voters, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

These results point to Democrats losing control of the House of Representatives, according to New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who runs the FiveThirtyEight election blog.

“Republicans are well positioned to win control of the House of Representatives in tomorrow’s elections, and quite possibly to achieve the largest gain made by either party in a Congressional election since World War II,” Silver wrote on the blog.

There are some bright spots, for Democratic supporters however &- most notably, that Republicans are unlikely to gain control of the Senate, Silver said.

“While Republicans retain a plausible path toward taking control of the Senate on Tuesday night, it would involve their winning at least two seats in which they appear to be underdogs, while simultaneously avoiding upsets in several other races in which they are narrowly favored,” Silver wrote.