Hockey East playoff picture takes shape

Four of the five series in Hockey East this past weekend went pretty much as expected. Boston University swept Providence, Merrimack swept Massachusetts, Maine swept Massachusetts-Lowell and New Hampshire took three of four points from Vermont.

The one that didn’t go as planned was Boston College vs. Northeastern. The fact that they tied Friday night wasn’t a big surprise considering the Huskies pushed the Eagles to the limit in last Monday’s Beanpot championship.

But Northeastern winning Saturday night to take three of four points from BC was definitely a bit of a shock, especially considering that the Huskies were without head coach Greg Cronin and assistant Albie O’Connell, both of whom have been suspended indefinitely for possible recruiting violations.

Believe it or not, BU is still very much alive in the race for the regular-season crown. If the Terriers grab all eight points left on the schedule, UNH gets four of eight or less (a realistic possibility given its schedule), and Merrimack and BC each take fewer than six of eight, BU would finish first. Although the chances of all that happening are unlikely, it’s not an entirely far-fetched scenario.

UNH is the only team ahead of BU against which the Terriers own the head-to-head tiebreaker. They won the season series against the Wildcats two games to one, but lost the season series against Merrimack (0-1-2) and BC (0-3-0). Merrimack owns the tiebreaker against each of the other three teams still fighting for first. UNH currently owns the tiebreaker against BC, but they still play each other twice more.

Looking behind BU, the Terriers can clinch a top-four spot and home ice in the first round with just three more points. If BU gets three points and Maine wins out, the two teams end up tied and the Terriers get fourth because they won the season series against the Black Bears (1-0-2).

Northeastern would have to sweep BU the last weekend of the season and get at least three more points than the Terriers this weekend in order to finish ahead of BU.
Given that the Terriers are playing eighth-place Vermont this weekend and both games are at Agganis Arena, expect BU to take care of business and wrap up home ice this weekend.

Feb. 25/26
Vermont at BU
After starting the year 2-9-4, Vermont has posted an improved 5-8-2 record since winter break. BU is still the more talented team, though, as evidenced by the fact that they beat the Catamounts 4-2 in Burlington on Jan. 9 despite playing one of their worst games of the year. Plus, the Terriers know pretty much all their remaining games are must-wins if they want to make NCAAs.
Result: BU sweeps
UNH vs. Northeastern home-and-home
Northeastern was already having a very good second half even before taking three of four points from BC, as the Huskies are now 8-3-3 this semester. UNH has slowed a little since losing just two games in the first half, but the Wildcats are still 8-5-1 in the new year. This has the makings of the best series of the weekend.
Result: Split
Merrimack at Maine
Merrimack is 14-1-0 this semester and without question the hottest team in the conference. Maine was under .500 in the second half before sweeping UMass-Lowell this weekend. Still, Alfond Arena is a tough place to play and the Black Bears haven’t been swept there yet this year.
Result: Merrimack takes three of four points
BC vs. UMass home-and-home
Think BC will be hungry after losing a weekend series for the first time all season? Add in the fact that UMass is 3-11-2 this semester and this is an easy pick.
Result: BC sweeps
Providence vs. UMass-Lowell home-and-home
Providence is 1-10-2 this semester. UML is 2-10-0. Yawn.
Result: Split

That would give BU 35 points, putting them two points behind UNH and BC and one point behind Merrimack heading into the season’s final weekend.

March 4/5
BU vs. Northeastern home-and-home
The Terriers and Huskies match up pretty evenly on paper and they matched up pretty evenly in their first meeting this season, a 5-4 BU win on Dec. 8. Should be a good series.
Result: Split
UNH vs. BC home-and-home
As you can see from the standings above, there will be plenty on the line in this series. Either one can clinch first with a sweep, but anything less opens the door for Merrimack to take the top spot. Even though I think BC is a better team, I don’t see a sweep.
Result: BC takes three of four points
Merrimack vs. Providence home-and-home
In this scenario, Merrimack clinches the one seed with a sweep and anything but a sweep in the UNH-BC series, or with three points and a UNH-BC split. I don’t foresee the Warriors having any problems with the Friars.
Result: Merrimack sweeps
Maine at UMass
The Black Bears are much better than the Minutemen, but sweeping any Hockey East team on the road is tough.
Result: Maine takes three of four points
UMass-Lowell at Vermont
The Catamounts are playing better than the River Hawks this semester, they’re at home and they’ll be hungry after the series against BU.
Result: Vermont sweeps
For coverage of BU’s series against Providence last weekend, go to thebostonhockeyblog.blogspot.com.