MARASCO: Gopher Hunting

When you heard that the No. 8/10 Boston University hockey squad was headed out to St. Paul for the NCAA hockey tournament’s first round to face No. 6 University of Minnesota in a virtual home game for the Golden Gophers, you may have felt a bit unnerved.

I can’t blame you. Playing those Gophers so close to their home is not ideal, but c’est la vie. The Terriers are paying the price for their average showing in the Hockey East tournament.

However, should Terrier fans really feel that concerned about the task of winning a big game on the road?

There are other things to fret about in this matchup (and I’ll get to those), but geography is not one of them.

BU is just 10-9 at home this season, but is 13-5-1 in road and neutral site matchups.

The road performance of this squad only becomes more impressive when you investigate these wins.

The Terriers’ impressive wins away from Agganis include: the Red Hot Hockey clash against Cornell University at Madison Square Garden; a 4-1 victory at Merrimack when it was ranked fourth in the country; a 7-4 victory at UMass-Lowell when the River Hawks (what is a river hawk?) were leading Hockey East; two wins at Boston College; a 5-1 drubbing of Maine in Orono – A very impressive road résumé indeed.

The ability to win away from home is always a plus come tournament time because home ice ultimately gets tossed aside.

The Terriers will hope to summon that road mojo a few more times on the road to Tampa.

So, BU fans can feel positive about their team’s resolve on the road, but what about the matchup with Minnesota itself? – location aside.

There are a few concerning factors.

Both teams enjoy consistent success at the offensive end with BU 2nd in the nation in scoring and Minnesota 3rd.

It gets more interesting at the other end of the ice. Kent Patterson has a Division I-leading seven shutouts this season for the Golden Gophers – but that statistic is misleading.

He’s only faced 980 shots this season and is actually only touting a .910 save percentage – lower than you’d expect from a goalie who’s bageled the opponent seven times.

In fact, Patterson is coming off a game in which he allowed six goals on just 28 shots.

BU senior goaltender Kieran Milan has had three shutouts of his own despite facing 1162 shots and boasts an impressive save percentage of .925 this season. He’s also broken his own career high for saves in a single game twice in the last two weeks.

So what’s the problem you ask?

Despite the better goalie production, BU is still allowing more than half a goal per game than Minnesota.

That points to a huge edge for the Gophers in team defense.

But what about special teams?

In a game between teams of this caliber you’d expect special teams to be at a premium.

Both squads are very efficient on the power play, with Minnesota converting 23.12 percent of its chances and BU converting 22.63 percent, good for 5th and 8th in the nation respectively.

The numbers are close on the other end too, with BU holding serve on the penalty kill 82.7 percent of the time and Minnesota stopping foes at 81 percent.

So, this seems to be a virtual draw . . . right?

Not so fast.

Minnesota has been far more disciplined, averaging just more than 13.5 penalty minutes per game, while BU has averaged nearly 19 minutes a game – a disturbing total.

This reeks of danger.

We all saw what happened last week, with Maine netting four PP goals – the difference in the game.

If BU spends as much time in the box as it’s made a habit of this year, it could spell doom.  Minnesota is too lethal when it has the man advantage to be given excess opportunities.

So you’ve got to hope BU can stay out of the box, but how do the Terriers combat the strong team defensive play of those pesky Gophers?

You can expect Don Lucia’s team to play its wide-open style and attempt to thrive on puck possession.

In fact, that emphasis on possession is what has kept its opponents’ shots and scoring numbers so low this season.

On the other side, BU’s aggressive forechecking style will create an interesting matchup.

We know BU will utilize its on-puck speed, especially that of Duluth, Minn., native Chris Connolly (who should feel right at home in St. Paul), to break into the zone, coupled with a healthy variety of forechecks. But maintaining possession in the zone – being patient and intelligent with the puck – will be at a premium.

Sophomore defenseman Adam Clendening could be an x-factor here, as his ability to shoot, but more importantly handle and distribute the puck effectively from the blue line could be huge for the Terriers.

Yes, the matchup is worrisome – the Terriers will need to avoid racking up penalty minutes and limit Minnesota’s puck control and transition opportunities as much as possible – but coming off a frustrating loss, facing a top team on the road in a huge game . . . Seems like exactly the type of bout BU has been winning all season.