The Edmonton Oilers were awarded the first overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft on Saturday, marking the fourth time in the past six years that Edmonton will select the first pick.
In the 2014 offseason, the NHL changed the percentage chance of each team to win the draft lottery. Now, the worst team in the league gets just a 20 percent chance of receiving the first overall pick in the following year’s draft.
The NHL made a mistake by changing the odds so drastically. Though changes were just made, it is crucial to the league’s future that new changes are made as soon as possible.
Twenty percent is simply not a good enough chance. The worst team in the league should be rewarded with the first overall pick in the following year.
The goal of any professional sports league is to increase the league’s level of competition. Logically, the team that finishes last in the standings is in need of the “most help” in order to get better, and having the first choice on draft day is what gets that team the “most help.”
The NHL wants to deter teams from “tanking,” or purposefully losing games in order to receive a higher draft pick the following year. The league provides each team that misses the playoffs a chance at winning the first overall pick. While this may seem like a good approach, the 2015 NHL Entry Draft will be the third draft in a row in which the worst team in the league from the previous year will not select the first overall pick.
The Oilers had an 11.5 percent chance to win the first overall pick. The Buffalo Sabres, the NHL’s worst team in the 2014-15 season, had a 20 percent chance to win. The league’s worst team was less than 9 percent more likely to get the first overall selection than the league’s third worst.
The Sabres have been the league’s statistical worst team for the past two years; they did not receive the first pick either year. Clearly, something new needs to be done about the lottery.
Sam Reinhart, the forward Buffalo selected second overall in the 2014 Entry Draft, played just nine games for the Sabres this year. His draft presence has yet to be felt.
Imagine, hypothetically, if Buffalo had the first pick last season. While it is hard to say that first overall pick Aaron Ekblad would have been an All-Star if he were a member of the Sabres, it seems as though he was more NHL-ready fresh out of juniors than Reinhart was.
Although there is never a guarantee that the first overall pick will improve a team immediately (or ever), it is important that the worst team receives the first selection.
Let’s look at the past two Entry Drafts. In each case, we can see drastic, immediate improvements to the teams that received the first overall pick.
The Colorado Avalanche (the second worst team in 2012-13) won the 2013 Draft Lottery. The worst team in the league that year was the Florida Panthers. The Panthers would eventually win the lottery in 2014 after finishing the 2013-14 season second from the bottom of the league.
The Avalanche selected Nathan MacKinnon first overall in 2013. The following season, the then-18-year-old MacKinnon took the NHL by storm and gave the Avalanche a new level of offensive firepower.
With the help of MacKinnon’s Calder Memorial Trophy-winning season, Colorado shocked the hockey world and recorded 112 points, winning the highly contested Central Division. The Avalanche were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in a Game 7 overtime classic against the Minnesota Wild.
The Florida Panthers selected Ekblad first overall in 2014. Ekblad made the All-Star team this 2014-15 season and quickly became Florida’s most effective defenseman. The Panthers improved from 66 points in 2013-14 to 91 points in 2014-15 — just seven points removed from a playoff spot.
These two examples show that the second worst team showed tremendous growth the year after selecting first overall, whereas the worst team from the previous year remained among the league’s worst.
This year, the Oilers will most likely select superstar Canadian 18-year-old Connor McDavid, a once-in-a-generation talent who would make an immediate impact on any team. McDavid had an unbelievable 120 points in just 47 games played for the Erie Otters of the Ontario Hockey League during the regular season.
McDavid’s unprecedented 2.55 points per game is the best average in juniors since Sidney Crosby’s 2.71 PPG for the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League’s Rimouski Oceanic in 2004-05. So, at the junior level, McDavid’s numbers staggeringly surpass those of his potential Oiler teammates such as Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
Perhaps McDavid’s dynamic skill will finally push Edmonton over the edge of regular season disappointment and into the playoff picture. Perhaps McDavid would also make an immediate impact on Buffalo – the league’s worst team. We may never know.
I agree with some of what you say. I believe lack of success with the Oilers has to be placed at the hands of management. It appears that one thing you might have missed is the AHL Oklahoma City Barons. You will note that the Barons have gone to the AHL playoffs for the last number years. One would assume, with this Talent base, that the Oilers should be better. I would have to think also that Darnel Nurse, who was one of the most valuable players at the Worlds, will make quite a contribution on the D. He also has the blood lines to go with it. My view is the Oil need a goaltender & a number one D man. It will be interesting to see what happens with the 16th & 33rd draft picks.