Late Tuesday evening, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump announced via Twitter that he would not be participating in Thursday’s FOX News Republican Debate, the last before the first voters voice their opinions in the Iowa Caucuses on Monday. This created an important opportunity for the Republican Party to bounce back from what has been an undoubtedly disastrous presidential race for it.
The politics of the Western World have shifted drastically to the right over the last few years in response to the rise of The Islamic State and the ensuing Syrian refugee crisis in Europe. Several hard-right, anti-immigration nationalist parties have emerged in European Union member states in an attempt to curb the influx of — largely Muslim — refugees in Europe. Figureheads like Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Front party in France, have created political platforms predicated on xenophobic sentiments as the fear of jihadist terrorism in Europe increases.
Despite increasing popular support, the National Front was recently unsuccessful in French regional elections, but many on the left fear the loss will bolster Le Pen’s bid for president if she is able to successfully brand her party as the “New Right” in France. Poland, on the other hand, recently elected the farthest right Parliament in Europe after the landslide success of the Law and Justice party.
This shift to the right is reflected here in the United States as well, but instead of new parties emerging from isolationist sentiment, these views have been expressed within an increasingly divided GOP. Much of Donald Trump’s platform has been built on anti-immigration — from his half-baked intentions to wall off Mexico, to his ambitious plans for mass deportation, to his proposed ban on the entry of Muslim immigrants.
Trump has become the American National Front, but from within the GOP, he illuminates problems a two-party political system can pose when certain factions of a party radicalize. Trump has forced GOP leaders to face the difficult decision of appearing cohesive by supporting their frontrunner’s racist, Islamophobic and hateful rhetoric, or appearing divided and hopefully more appealing to minority and independent voters.
A Tuesday poll conducted by Quinnipiac University showed that though Trump was the leading choice for the GOP’s nominee, he tied former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for the candidate voters “would definitely not support” at 24 percent.
This may not seal Trump’s fate, but it certainly points to the polarization of the frontrunner and the divide among Republicans. Sure, Trump can rally Republican support enough to beat out the other 11 GOP candidates, but the party is looking to win an election here, not secure a nomination.
The radical shift to the right that the GOP’s candidates have exhibited on the campaign circuit in response to Trump’s so-called “populist rhetoric” is, after all, unsustainable. The candidate who takes the nomination will have no choice but to appeal to the center in order to stand any chance in winning the general election.
In an interview Monday, U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan told radio host Hugh Hewitt that he believes Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton has already begun a general election campaign strategy — a concern for a Republican Party that appears to get more unorganized and turbulent every day.
And this move to the center is poised to become increasingly difficult for the GOP as candidates issue radically conservative statements to try to compete with Trump. The GOP nominee, whomever it may be, will have to grapple with the task of later appearing centrist to wide swaths of undecided voters without contradicting positions taken during the primary circuit now.
That is why this Trump-less debate was so crucial for the other candidates. It was an opportunity to rebrand the GOP as more palatably moderate and, especially, tolerant. For months, the members of the GOP have vehemently insisted that Trump’s proposed policies and divisive rhetoric do not represent the party. At a press conference in December, Ryan criticized Trump’s proposed ban on Muslims entering the country, claiming, “This is not conservatism.”
Well then, what is? That was one of the most critical questions facing the GOP candidates as they moved into their last debate before the Iowa Caucuses.
