With football season officially over and winter sports entering their mid-season doldrums, it is now time to open the book on baseball season. USA TODAY recently released its full season projections for every team and rose more than a few eyebrows in the process. Below, I’ll break down each division in addition to what I agree with and disagree with the most.
National League Central
It’s hard to bet against the Chicago Cubs this year, as they’ve got a rock-solid rotation, top-caliber bullpen and probably the best young corps of position players in the league. With that said, USA TODAY has the Cubs winning 101 games, which may be a stretch.
On paper, the Cubs could surely win 100 games. Recall, though, that the NL Central sent three teams to the postseason last year. Now, realize it could easily do that again this year. The St. Louis Cardinals have only missed the postseason four times since 2000, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have been in the playoffs for each of the last three years.
If recently acquired starting pitcher John Lackey fails to meet expectations or if the Cubs suffer injury trouble to their star-studded cast of infielders, they could easily fall behind St. Louis or Pittsburgh or both in the fiercely contested Central. (However, the bottom two teams, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds, are each a hot mess right now.)
American League Central
The AL Central is even more competitive than its National League counterpart. It is both home to the reigning World Champions and the up-and-coming rosters of the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians. While USA TODAY has the White Sox atop the AL Central at the end of the year, it admits this division is “hell” for “prognosticators and five teams with legitimate playoff hopes.”
While the White Sox have one of the best starting pitching duos in the league (Chris Sale, Jose Quintana), they finished 19 games behind the Royals last year. There are too many unanswered questions to say that the White Sox will be six games better than the Royals, a team seeking its third consecutive AL Pennant and second World Series.
National League East
On a related note, USA TODAY has the Washington Nationals winning the NL East. Predicting any NL East team to win that isn’t the New York Mets is simply foolish. Yes, the Nationals have reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper, who finally met the hype that has followed him since his emergence in the league. They brought in manager Dusty Baker to try and fix their abysmal locker room from last year, and lastly, they have Steven Strasburg front manning one of the league’s top starting rotations.
However, the Mets have one of the best starting rotations in league history. Plus, when their lineup is hot, it’s among the best in the league. Last year’s Cubs shocked the league, crushing opponents all season long, and the Mets shut them down with ease. This year, with the experience under their belts, the Mets have as good a chance as ever at the Pennant, and especially the division. None of the other three teams stand a chance.
American League East
USA TODAY has the Red Sox winning 88 games and the AL East. Signing David Price was a brilliant move, and much needed. If Clay Buchholz can stay remotely healthy and if Rick Porcello can come close to meeting expectations, then the Sox will have a serviceable rotation. Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts are two of the hottest names in baseball, and they lead an explosive offense.
The Red Sox have been here before, though, with high expectations after a busy offseason. It didn’t work out so well last time, and while they will improve from last season, they frankly do not have the firepower to beat the Toronto Blue Jays. With names like Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnación, José Bautista and Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto has the best offense in the MLB. The team’s pitching overall is probably in the bottom half of the league, but it won’t need it to win the AL East, as they face weak pitching opposition from Baltimore, mediocre pitching in Tampa Bay and who knows what kind of pitching from Boston and New York.
National League West
Much like the NL Central, the NL West is a three-headed monster. The Arizona Diamondbacks are poised to have a very strong 2016. Unfortunately for them, though, they have to play more than 30 games against the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants — both poised to have even better seasons.
Clayton Kershaw dominates lineups of all calibers, and when healthy, Yasiel Puig torments pitchers. The Dodgers have always had star power and high expectations but have not advanced to the World Series since they last won it in 1988. The Giants, on the other hand, have experienced wild success recently. With the additions of Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto, they seem more than ready to continue that success this season. This is San Francisco’s division to lose, despite serious competition from the Dodgers and D-Backs.
American League West
Finally, I agree with USA TODAY’s AL West winner. The Houston Astros looked great to close out the 2015 season, en route to their first playoff appearance since 2005. With their young core led by Carlos Correa and José Altuve and their pitching staff led by last year’s AL Cy Young winner Dallas Kuechel, there is no reason to think Houston will be any worse than last year’s 86-win campaign.
The Astros will face some opposition from the Texas Rangers, who will get a healthy Yu Darvish back from Tommy John surgery at some point this year. They will face some opposition from Mike Trout’s Los Angeles Angels, but not as much as last year. Unfortunately for the Angels, their current pitching situation is not enough to carry them on a deep playoff run. They’re also dangerously low on prospects to trade to acquire the pitching depth they need.
