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Best Supporting Actor Pick: Ian McKellen

• Jim Broadbent (“Iris”) • Ethan Hawke (“Training Day”) • Ben Kingsley (“Sexy Beasts”) • Ian McKellen (“Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings”) • Jon Voight (“Ali”)

Whether or not “Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings” will walk off with the big one tonight is still beyond me, but look for it to deservedly win in its lone acting category as Sir Ian McKellen takes a long deserved statue. A British actor who was previously nominated for his excellent performance in “Gods and Monsters,” McKellen was a standout in LOTR, a film that was excellent to begin with.

If anyone else could steal it, it’s Ben Kingsley for his very un-Gandhi turn in “Sexy Beast.” Not enough people have even heard of “Iris” to recognize Jim Broadbent (he’d have a better chance if his Harold Zidler from “Moulin Rouge” earned him the nomination instead), and Ethan Hawke is already on my bad-list for stealing the nomination from much more disserving candidates such as Steve Buscemi and Jude Law. Plus, if anyone from the flawed but entertaining “Training Day” wins anything, it’ll be Denzel.

Jon Voight’s uncanny Howard Cosell in “Ali” was the one thing that made the movie watchable, but it’s likely the lackluster film will turn voters off. So, save for a chance of surprise from Kingsley, look for Gandalf to rule the night.

WILL WIN: Ian McKellen SHOULD WIN: Ian McKellen REALISTIC UPSET: Ben Kingsley

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