While there are some congressional Republicans still celebrating their November victory, congressional leaders have begun to map out a strategy for 2015. Currently, Congress is sitting in a period known as the “Lame Duck Session,” a period of time before newly elected members of Congress take office. There is normally little work that gets done during this period, and all eyes will look to what happens once the elected members finally do take office. Although election night was a massive victory for congressional Republicans, they must now prove they can govern if they wish to repeat this success in 2016.
With Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, GOP leaders are looking to accomplish a list of things and shed the negative image they obtained during the government shutdown. Unfortunately for the GOP, it appears that U.S. President Barack Obama does not plan to cooperate. The most common question political pundits were asked after the midterm election what the likelihood was that the GOP Congress and Obama would be able to work together in the last two years of his term. Perhaps the most common answer from conservative pundits was “Yes, but if the president issues an executive order on immigration, it will make cooperation less likely.”
Before, during and after the election, Republicans had campaigned against any form of executive action on immigration. Republicans were asking the president to wait until new lawmakers had taken office, and then offered to negotiate on immigration. The president, on the other hand, did not trust Republicans, as a Senate immigration bill had been passed, but the House did not pass that bill. With no elections left in his term, Obama ignored congressional Republicans again and issued a series of executive actions on immigration, infuriating Republicans.
What political jockeys must now wait to see is how Congress will respond in January. While there are many Republicans who do not approve of the president’s actions, any extreme counteraction, such as shutting down the government, could backfire and hurt the GOP in the future.
A second issue facing the soon-to-be GOP-controlled Congress is Obamacare. Republicans now hold 53 seats in the Senate, with the possibility of controlling 54 when the runoff election in Louisiana is decided. For those who don’t know parliamentary procedure, it takes 60 votes to pass legislation in the Senate. Even if Republicans win in Louisiana, they will still be six seats from a filibuster-proof majority.
Without this filibuster-proof majority, Republicans may have a difficult time enacting changes to Obamacare, especially if they look for a full repeal. Yet, there is a procedural tool that Senate Republicans could use to alter Obamacare. The procedural tool, better known as reconciliation, would allow Senate Republicans to include a vote on Obamacare in the budget process. This vote would only require 51 votes to pass and could then be sent to the House for a vote, which would bring the bill to the president’s desk.
A bill regarding a full repeal would almost certainly face a veto, leaving Republicans with a choice. Do they attempt to make a political statement with a full repeal, or do they attempt to make constructive changes to the law, which the president might actually consider? If the president refuses to make any changes to his signature law, he leaves Republicans with another choice. Do they continue to push for changes to the law, or do they focus on other issues, which may actually have a chance of becoming a law?
The 2014 midterm elections have given Republicans a chance to prove they are not the “Party of No” and can successfully govern. Yet Republicans are walking a tight line. The executive actions issued by Obama have already upset some members of the party, who will now look to counteract the president. This reaction must be proportional, and anything else could seriously damage the GOP’s hopes in 2016. The GOP Senate will also take steps against Obamacare, but if it gets hung up on the issue, or takes an extreme stance, the GOP majority will disappear quickly in 2016.
