Pop quiz: Who are the only two active pitchers in baseball with career earned-run averages under three?
I’ll give you a hint: they’re also the top two among active pitchers in opponents’ batting average, walks plus hits in innings pitched and a number of other statistical categories.
Need one more clue? They’re the two Game 1 starters in the 2018 World Series.
That’s right. Baseball is finally being blessed with the matchup everyone has been waiting for: Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. Boston and Los Angeles. The Beasts of the East vs. the Best of the West.
The 2018 Fall Classic kicks off Tuesday night at Fenway Park. The Sox will be well-rested — they quickly sent the Houston Astros packing in the American League Championship Series, which concluded Thursday. The Dodgers, on the other hand, will be riding the momentum of a dominant 5-1 victory in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series Saturday.
These are two incredibly talented and deep teams, and there are countless fascinating storylines. The last time the two teams faced each other in the World Series was 1916, when Babe Ruth was pitching for the Red Sox and the Dodgers were still known as the Robins. Suffice it to say, this is going to be a good series.
So who’s got the edge? Let’s dive in.
Lineups
First, the offense. The Red Sox led all of baseball with 5.45 runs per game in 2018, finishing first in just about every statistical category, including team batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, hits, runs, runs batted in and doubles. With MVP candidates Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez leading the charge, plus Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi and ALCS MVP Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston’s lineup is dangerous. When starting first baseman Mitch Moreland injured his hamstring against the New York Yankees, Steve Pearce stepped up and started most of the first two series, hitting .269 so far in the postseason.
The only challenge for Boston will be when the series shifts to Los Angeles and the team loses its designated hitter. Manager Alex Cora has already said Martinez will remain in the lineup no matter what. So who do you sit: likely MVP Betts, ALCS MVP and elite defender Bradley, or Benintendi? One option is to rotate Bradley and Benintendi in and out of the lineup. The other, more nuclear option? Start Betts at his once-natural position, second base. Cora left that option on the table.
The Dodgers are dangerous in a different way. They averaged an NL-led 4.93 runs per game while slugging 235 home runs, second only to the New York Yankees. With the electric Yasiel Puig, youngster Max Muncy and mid-July acquisition and Red Sox rival Manny Machado, LA is full of long-ball threats. Ten Dodgers hit 13 or more homers, compared to seven for Boston. The Dodgers also boast a talented outfield, with Puig, Joc Pederson, Enrique Hernández and Matt Kemp. Plus, veteran David Freese is one the most clutch postseason hitters of the last decade. They don’t have a weak hitter in their lineup.
Edge: Boston. It’s close, but the Red Sox have a more dynamic lineup that does more than just hit home runs.
Rotation
The Red Sox playoff rotation has been a bit of a surprise. The ALCS featured very strong starts from Nathan Eovaldi and David Price, including the first postseason win in Price’s career as a starter. Rick Porcello pitched decently in his start, but provided lights-out relief. Eovaldi also came out of the bullpen, and he, too, was untouchable. Not to mention, the Red Sox beat the Astros in four straight games without Chris Sale. Sale was mediocre in Game 1, but after plenty of rest and the benefit of full health after a brief stay in the hospital, Sale is ready to go for the World Series. The Sox rotation seems to have fallen into place at just the right time.
The Dodgers, despite having only one pitcher with double-digit victories in 2018, finished the regular season with an NL-best 3.38 team ERA. Kershaw remains the best pitcher on the planet, and he is backed up by a solid corps of Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler, former Sox favorite Rich Hill, Ross Stripling and Kenta Maeda. Kershaw was his usual otherworldly self in Game 5 and finished Game 7 for the Dodgers. The Dodgers rotation is deeper, but has less upside than Boston’s core four of Sale, Price, Porcello and Eovaldi.
Edge: Boston. LA’s rotation has more reliable depth than Boston, but if Sale and Price both perform, it will be hard for the Dodgers to keep up.
Bullpen
All season, the Sox bullpen has been a concern. Joe Kelly experienced some extreme highs and lows, closer Craig Kimbrel has had very rocky outings, especially in the beginning of the postseason and Matt Barnes, Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree have all given fans reasons to worry at one point or another. It became quite clear that the Red Sox made a mistake by not acquiring an additional bullpen arm at the trade deadline. Nevertheless, thanks to a tip from former Sox pitcher Eric Gagne, Kimbrel was able to make adjustments after weeks of tipping his pitches and appeared more like himself at the end of the ALCS. Ryan Brasier has been a crucial newcomer in Boston, showing the ability to both step up in tense late-inning spots and to provide long relief early in the game as well. With an offense as talented and clutch as the Red Sox have, even a shaky bullpen can’t keep them out of games, no matter the deficit.
That being said, the Dodgers have a clear edge here. Behind Scott Alexander (3.68 ERA in 73 appearances), Pedro Báez (2.88 ERA, 62 strikeouts in 55 innings), Josh Fields (2.20 ERA in 45 outings) and closer Kenley Jansen (3.01 ERA with 82 punchouts and 38 saves), LA exhibited a very strong bullpen all season. Late-season acquisition Ryan Madson has been excellent in the postseason, allowing one run over five innings in the NLCS. In short, the bullpen has been elite.
Edge: Dodgers. Not particularly close here.
Ultimately, these are two deep, dangerous and talented teams. They will both enter the World Series rested and with their aces on the bump in Game 1 (and maybe 5 and/or 7 too). Both have beloved young managers, who each played for the Red Sox. Both have exciting young stars, Hall of Fame-caliber starters and closers, and perennial MVP-candidate sluggers.
Despite the strong bullpen and imminent long-ball threat the Dodgers pose, it’s hard to imagine this series ending in anything but the Red Sox’s fourth world championship since 2004. The Sox are 7-2 so far in these playoffs and are 5-0 on the road. Kimbrel and Sale look poised to return to their elite selves in the World Series, and Price is riding the high of the biggest start of his Red Sox career. Sox skipper Cora has made a string of excellent — albeit risky — decisions and is managing as though he’s been doing this for 30 years, not less than one.
Of course, anything can happen. That’s the beauty of October baseball. But after eliminating the second and third best teams in baseball with relative ease, the quietly confident Sox appear to be in perfect position to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy yet again. It’s more a matter of when than if they’ll win.
