As the year comes to a close and Massachusetts’ presidential primary election approaches, several candidates have emerged as frontrunners for the Bay State’s pick for the Democratic presidential nominee.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is currently projected to lead the race with 33 percent of the vote, while former vice president Joe Biden follows with 18 percent of the vote and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is predicted to take 13 percent of the vote, according to a recent poll by MassINC Polling Group.
The primary elections for Massachusetts and nine other states are scheduled for March 3, 2020, a date dubbed “Super Tuesday.” The state’s 91 delegates will be distributed based on results from congressional districts across the Commonwealth.
Three candidates have dropped out of the race this week — former top-tier candidate California Sen. Kamala Harris, Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock. There are now only 15 remaining Democratic candidates vying for the party nomination in 2020.
While the MassINC poll took place before their announcements and does not reflect their exits, though they all polled 3 percent or below among Massachusetts voters.
David Hopkins, an associate professor of political science at Boston College, said it makes sense that Warren is likely the front-runner for Massachusetts, but there are some possible challengers.
“The favorite for the Massachusetts primary, presumably, is Elizabeth Warren, because she’s a home-state senator and is one of the leading national candidates for the nomination,” Hopkins said. “We obviously also have Deval Patrick in the race at the moment, who is a former governor and if his campaign were to somehow take off he’d be in good shape to compete here in Massachusetts as well.”
Hopkins said although Warren will likely win the Massachusetts primary election, candidates who are strong second and third-place finishers in the Massachusetts primary can still benefit.
“It would be quite a shock for another candidate to actually beat Warren unless her campaign is already in a serious decline nationally by the time we get to vote in March,” Hopkins said. “But it’s important to note who comes in second and third as well, because any candidate who gets at least 15 percent of the vote will get a share of the delegates from the state.”
Biden is likely to be one of these strong second- or third-place finishers, Hopkins said.
“He’s very well-known nationally, and he is the favorite of many of the more moderate Democrats who might see Warren as a little too far to the left,” Hopkins said. “So it wouldn’t be surprising if Biden gets some delegates from Massachusetts as well.”
John Laadt, the Massachusetts state director for Biden’s campaign, said in an emailed statement emailed that the campaign is expanding its presence in Massachusetts as elections near.
“Our campaign is excited to be expanding our footprint in Massachusetts,” Laadt said in the statement. “As we get closer to Election Day, we will be focused on communicating why the Vice President is the best candidate to restore the soul of our nation, rebuild the middle class, and unify the country.”
Following the fourth Democratic primary debate on Oct. 15, Biden received endorsements from 51 current and former Massachusetts officials, according to a press release in October from the Biden campaign.
Laadt also wrote that many key supporters are among these 51, with names such as U.S. Rep. Steven Lynch of Massachusetts’ eighth district heading the list.
“With Bay Staters such as Rep. Stephen Lynch and dozens of state and local elected officials on Team Joe,” Laadt said, “we are looking forward to continuing to build a broad and diverse coalition to win on March 3.”
Sophie Edelman, 25, of Somerville said she is not sure who she will support in the primary but that she has concerns about Biden.
“I think that Joe Biden is really old,” Edelman said, “and that could be a problem.”
Kelley Best, 37, of East Boston said she hopes the candidates focus on issues within the educational system.
“Universal preschool has been something I’ve heard about,” Best said. “Your kid is going to be way behind in school because you can’t afford childcare and you’re working paycheck to paycheck like everybody else”
Samantha Snyder, 31, of Brighton said she hopes Sanders wins the primary because of his focus on progressive health care.
“I think it’s gonna be either Warren or Bernie Sanders, but I’m hoping for Bernie Sanders,” Snyder said. “I really want Medicare For All and I am hoping he’ll get that.”
