Just over three weeks ago, the Terrier men’s soccer team was sitting pretty. A 3-0 win over Stony Brook had lifted the team’s record to an impressive 7-2-2, with the visiting Seawolves unable to direct even a single shot on goal. BU had risen to No. 15 in the NSCAA/adidas national poll. All seemed right in the world.
How does a team playing so well fall so fast?
A month ago, yesterday afternoon’s game at the University of Vermont was forecast as a stepping-stone en route to a top seed in the America East Tournament and likely home-field advantage. At worst, perhaps the Terriers would drop a game or two in October, but nothing capable of seriously threatening an NCAA Tournament berth.
Contrast early October expectations with what transpired over the past few weeks, and the rain and mud waiting for the Terriers in Burlington, Vt. yesterday seemed fitting –‘-‘- even deserved. Four consecutive losses will do that.
Some of the losses were understandable. A 2-1 defeat at the hands of New Hampshire makes more sense now considering the Wildcats’ current seven-game undefeated streak, and Hartford’s two-goal margin of victory was attained after Terrier Ryan Shea picked up a red card in the 74th minute.
But the point remains: Four consecutive losses seemed outside the realm of possibility. And with those four results, the Terriers’ season outlook rewrote itself. A loss to the Catamounts would no longer be merely an unexpected bump in the road ‘- it would leave the team in seventh place, removed from postseason contention.
It is one thing to be outplayed or out-coached in games where the opponent is clearly superior. None of these losses fit that template. Each of the Terriers’ four conference losses has come in games where BU was fully capable of securing a win, or at the very least a tie. Consider this: the Terriers were either tied or ahead at some point during the last 30 minutes in each of those four games. Late-game failures are the culprit.
The Terriers have surrendered goals left and right, over keeper Hrafn Davidsson’s head and through his legs. Game-winning goals have been the first of a player’s career (Binghamton’s Ryan Walter) or just one of several (Chris Banks, New Hampshire). The Terriers have out-shot their opponents, controlled the pace of games regularly and found themselves in position to make a statement ‘- yet they failed to do so on multiple occasions.
For 90 minutes in Burlington, BU showed signs of the team pollsters rated so highly earlier this month. Vermont held the edge in both shots and corners, but the Terriers were the ones taking advantage of opportunities. The game-winning goal was scored by Stephen Knox on a rebound of his own shot. Sure, Knox had to be in the right place at the right time, but he created the opportunity. More importantly, he capitalized on it.
Of the teams BU is likely to meet in the quarterfinals, the Terriers would most likely prefer Stony Brook. After multiple weeks of sub-standard results, a rematch against a team BU already knows how to beat could help the Terriers build some momentum. At the very least, the BU defense should have a higher comfort level against a team it completely shut down earlier this month.
Still, it’s hard to predict whether BU is capable of fully recapturing the form it displayed during the first half of the season. The Terriers certainly have the tools. Aaron O’Neal is a phenomenal midfielder and the team’s complementary weapons have made opponents pay on occasion. Davidsson’s five shutouts from earlier this season didn’t happen by accident.
And if there’s any evidence of BU’s ability to rise to the challenge, yesterday’s game is a positive sign. Vermont is far from a formidable opponent, but the Terriers did secure a result on the road in a can’t-lose game, making plays when necessary and keeping their season alive.
But now it will take more than another win or two to keep the team’s NCAA Tournament dreams alive. The most recent RPI data listed BU as No. 49 in the country. The NCAAs observed selection criteria for men’s soccer place especially heavy emphasis on RPI.
With several of the 48 available tournament bids automatically handed to otherwise unqualified conference champions, the Terriers will need a significantly improved RPI rank to secure an at-large bid. Observing the Terriers’ remaining strength of schedule, such an improvement appears unlikely. For all intents and purposes, BU needs to win the America East Tournament in order to guarantee inclusion in the national bracket.
Winning out isn’t an impossible task ‘-‘- remember, not too long ago, an America East championship was the Terriers’ apparent destiny. With a game against Albany this weekend, BU has an opportunity to string together two wins heading into the conference tournament and, more importantly, build some confidence.
Confident or otherwise, the regular season is rapidly approaching its conclusion. From then on, it’s win or go home, and if BU wants to keep playing, this team needs to demonstrate some poise instead of repeatedly shooting itself in the foot. After three weeks inching ever closer to disaster, one more misstep could be the Terriers’ last.
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