MARASCO: Finding the greatest sum

To many Boston University hockey fans, the end of the fall semester brought confusion, anger and grief. With Corey Trivino, the team’s leading scorer, suddenly dismissed from the team, and Charlie Coyle, who had the team’s third highest points total, deciding that he would leave to focus on his professional career, this seemingly cataclysmic duo of losses was a punch to the stomach of the BU hockey faithful.

In the wake of losing two of their top players, however, the Terriers’ play has arguably trended upward.

No one questions the talent and prowess of Trivino or Coyle on the ice, but perhaps the whole of the roster has proven greater than the sum of its parts.  Could the BU hockey squad possibly be better without Trivino and Coyle?

The numbers say yes.

In the 16 games this season while Trivino and Coyle were with BU, the team had a record of 10-5-1, scoring 54 goals and allowing 45.  That’s a winning percentage of .656, with an average of 3.4 goals scored per game and 2.8 allowed per game.

In the 10 games since losing Trivino and Coyle, BU has posted a 7-3- record, with 38 goals scored and 23 allowed.  That results in a better winning percentage of .700, as well as a healthier goals-scored average, 3.8, and an improved goals-allowed average, 2.3.

What has accounted for this uptick in play? It’s puzzling to think that a team could lose two of its top three scorers and average more than a third of a goal per game than before.

The answer lies in a combination of factors.

With Trivino and Coyle gone, other, previously less-used players get a chance to play extended minutes, and also get the opportunity to touch the puck at a greater rate.  In place of Trivino and Coyle is a laundry list of BU players averaging goals at a greater clip than before – 13 players to be exact.

Take junior forward Wade Megan, for example.  Through the first 16 games, Megan had scored seven goals. In the last 10 games he has doubled that total, including two goals in the Beanpot Semifinal against Harvard.

Megan is being given greater responsibly in the team’s overall scheme, which yields opportunity for him to produce at a higher rate. That’s exactly what he’s done, along with the rest of the squad.

Could these trends be a result of variance in strength of opponents over this stretch?

The schedule says no.

Seven of those 10 games were played against opponents that BU had already faced in the previous 16 games. In fact, one can look deeper to see that the Terriers have actually faired better versus common opponents in the most recent 10-game stretch than in the previous 16. In the 10 games without Trivino and Coyle, BU went 4-2 against opponents that they had been 1-2 against during the first portion of the season.

The Terriers have also soared through the ranks during this period. At the time of Trivino and Coyle’s last game, BU sat 11th in the national rankings. They since have skyrocketed to the No. 1 team in the nation.

The data suggests team chemistry has improved over this stretch. Players are operating with greater cohesion and efficiency, creating more chances while also yielding less to opponents. They also are converting these offensive chances with increased regularity.

Take special teams play, for example. Through 16 games, BU had scored 14 power-play goals in 77 opportunities, a conversion rate of just 18 percent. However, in the last 10 games, the Terriers have scored 17 power-play goals in only 53 chances for a success rate of 32 percent.

It should be noted that Jack Parker and his coaching staff deserve a great deal of credit.  Not only did the coaches keep this unit afloat through tough times, but also to think that the team’s play would trend upward is a tremendous coaching feat.

Parker, along with his staff, has quickly adapted to the new makeup of their team, creating more efficient lines and compensating for the loss of star power by tweaking the team’s style of play to better fit the players who have stepped into increased roles.

A pair of star players has been lost, but BU’s roster has proven to be one with great depth and resolve.  Fear not, loyal Terrier fans.  BU hockey is going to be just fine.