Could there really be a Republican in Massachusetts? This is a question I often hear when I explain the campaigns I volunteer for. And yes it is true, Massachusetts is a notoriously “blue state.” In fact, there is not one Republican federal representative for the Bay State. The last Republican to hold a seat at the federal level was former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, who lost his seat to U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren in 2012. But it is midterm season once again, a chance for the Massachusetts Republican Party to make a change and take back congressional seats, as well as the governorship from Democrats. And this time around, they just might.
Republicans in Massachusetts have turned the race for governor from a blowout into an extremely competitive race. Over the summer, The Boston Globe polled the hypothetical match up between Massachusetts Attorney Gen. Martha Coakley and the Republican 2010 candidate for governor, Charlie Baker, as an 11 point lead for Coakley. But that was a hypothetical matchup at the time, and now that the matchup has become official, the polling reflects a much different landscape.
RealClearPolitics polls the race as a toss up, and Baker has often been polling ahead, shrinking Coakley’s aggregate lead to only a half a point. And that lead will continue to collapse as Coakley continues her gaff-filled campaign trail. Coakley has done everything, from forgetting what percentage the Massachusetts gas tax is, to forgetting the year she took office as attorney general. With Coakley stumbling, Baker has his best chance in over four years to make it to the governor’s office.
Since 2012, Massachusetts has not had a single Republican congressman represent them. That could change this cycle, as two Republicans have made the races for U.S. House of Representative seats extremely competitive. The first of these is Massachusetts’s 6th congressional district, which Republican candidate Richard Tisei lost by less than 4,000 votes in 2012. Tisei returned to the race in 2014 hoping to finally defeat incumbent John Tierney, but in one of the biggest upsets of election season, Tierney lost his primary to Democrat Seth Moulton. The race is still highly competitive, with the most recent polls showing Tisei ahead. Tisei is one of the more notable Republican candidates this cycle, as he is hoping to become the first openly gay Republican to join John Boehner’s majority.
In addition to the Tisei race, Massachusetts’s 9th congressional district is shaping up into one of the more competitive races in the Commonwealth. John Chapman, who shares the same birth name as famous Massachusetts resident Johnny Appleseed, has made a serious play for the seat of U.S. Rep. Bill Keating. Chapman has surged in the polls even taking a five-point lead in the most recent poll conducted by Emerson College. While the 9th district has continued to reelect Keating, Gabriel Gomez won the 9th district by seven points, even though he lost the 2013 special Senate election. The same is true of Scott Brown. He may have lost his reelection bid, but he won the 9th district by one point. With recent elections going in their favor, Massachusetts Republicans now have their eyes on the 9th district.
It may be known as one of the bluest states in the Union, but Massachusetts may just elect a few Republicans this election cycle. Do not count out the MassGOP this election cycle. While the battles may be difficult, they are certainly winnable.
