Bacevich: Region’s future uncertain

Only the war in Iraq’s outcome will be able to determine the future of the entire Middle East, several International Relations expert panelists said last night in the College of General Studies.

The event, entitled ‘The Future of the Middle East: The Iraqi Question,’ was sponsored by Boston University Students for Israel. BU professor Andrew Bacevich, Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Dr. Harvey Sapolski and Israeli consul general to New England Dr. Hillel Newman each presented their opinions on how the current war in Iraq would change the situation in the Middle East.

Bacevich said the perceptions of many Americans that the war in Iraq will be one the country wins has not changed since the war began.

‘Nothing has occurred that will change the final outcome [of the war] we’re going to win; they’re going to lose,’ Bacevich said.

Despite a few minor setbacks, Bacevich said many things the military feared could go wrong still have yet to happen weapons of mass destruction have not been used against United States troops, surface-to-surface missiles have not effectively been used and Iraq has yet to attack Israel.

In part, this good news can be attributed to the quick and effective military actions of the United States, Bacevich said.

‘There has been a remarkable and rapid movement of U.S. forces from Kuwait to Baghdad with minimal resistance,’ Bacevich said. ‘Our air defenses have been effective. The Iraqi Air Force is nowhere to be seen.’

But one of the biggest dilemmas facing the United States is the northern front of Iraq, Bacevich said. After Turkey refused to allow United States troops on its border, that part of Iraq has not been part of any major offensive.

‘We were supposed to have our very heavy 4th infantry unit there,’ Bacevich said. ‘And when I say infantry, don’t think little people crawling on the ground think big, heavy tanks.’

Another surprise has been the failure of the United States’ effort to ‘decapitate’ President Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi regime.

‘The regime has recovered its bearings someone is in charge,’ Bacevich said. ‘We had hoped it would cause things to crumble quickly, but it didn’t happen.’

The Iraqi Republican Guard is proving to be a much stronger opponent than anticipated, and ‘the jury is still out on how tough they are,’ Bacevich said.

Many Americans have been left wondering why President Bush has not backed down in the face of the war’s huge risks, as the U.S. military faces these obstacles and public opposition to the war rises. But Sapolski, the director of Security Studies at MIT, said Bush’s desire for regime change has kept him in the game.

‘The world is too torn up,’ Sapolski said. ‘We need to head it off before we have to face it.’

Many believe the United Nations’ decision to not support the United States in the war was a way to stop ‘the American Empire,’ though Sapolski quickly dismissed the argument. He said Americans will eventually pressure the country’s leaders to stop such involved United States efforts abroad.

‘It was going to be stopped anyway,’ Sapolski said. ‘Eventually, the American people won’t support running around being the world’s police when there’s work to be done at home.’

But, Sapolski said, another country will have to take the United States’ role as world peacekeeper if the United States bows out.

‘No one elected us to be the judge and jury of the world, but that’s the role we stepped into,’ Sapolski said, adding, ‘If we do less, others will have to do more.’

Newman said regime change in Iraq is necessary for the future of the Middle East.

‘If it doesn’t go smoothly, it will be a horrendous outcome for the Middle East,’ Newman said. ‘I don’t want to think about such a thing.’

If the United States does win the war, Newman said he believes there are two ways of looking at what will happen in the Middle East, each with different implications for America.

‘Optimists say the Arab states will see it’s possible to bring out a change in regime with the help of the Western world, while pessimists say the regimes will fight for their own political survival, increasing their hatred of the American world,’ he said.

But peace must come from a step-by-step process, Newman said. Extremist groups must be demilitarized and people’s voices must be heard.

‘When you sign an agreement, it’s between leaders, not the people,’ Newman said. ‘The people need to have a bigger voice.’

Students attending the panel said they came to learn more about the war. Though Jennifer Anastasio, a CGS freshman, said she has not closely followed wars in the past, she is making an effort with this one to keep up to date.

‘In high school I didn’t pay attention to politics, but now I’m trying to educate myself,’ Anastasio said. ‘I came because of the great panelists and to hear a different perspective on the war.’