BU profs consider Kerry’s chances

With a tall stature and a thousand-watt smile, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry commands attention. Kerry emanates a quality that both the pundits and the public find appealing.

Boston University professor of Political Science James Shoch calls it ‘gravitas.’

‘He’s serious,’ Shoch said. ‘He just has that kind of presence.’

BU professor Michael Ebeid agreed, saying, ‘He’ll bring an appropriate dignity back to the White House.’

Whatever it is called, Kerry will need it as he vies for the Democratic nomination for president in 2004.

Kerry has both the poll numbers and the money to win the Democratic nomination, Shoch said. Backed by his wife Theresa Heinz, heiress of the ketchup company’s family fortune, Kerry has enormous fundraising power and is leading in popularity polls.

Kerry’s primary contender for the Democratic nomination is John Edwards, (D-S.C.), according to Shoch.

‘John Edwards has his middle-class appeal and both [Kerry and Edwards] have equal amounts of funding,’ he said. ‘Kerry is just a little ahead in the polls than Edwards right now, so he’s got the best shot now.’

According to Shoch, voters feel that Kerry has credibility, given his experience in the Senate and Vietnam.

‘On national security and foreign policy the issues that matters most in our country John Kerry is unmatched in experience, leadership and depth,’ said Kerry spokesman David Wade. ‘He’s a decorated Vietnam combat veteran, he’s served 18 years on the [Senate] Foreign Relations Committee and he wrote a book on global terrorism and crime four years before 9/11.’

Ebeid said many people view Kerry as ‘smart and articulate, although his intellect can rub people the wrong way.’

‘People perceive him to be cold and aloof because he’s intellectual and because he’s a Northeastern liberal,’ Ebeid said.

Shoch said Kerry will receive more support from voters in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Coast regions what he called ‘blue America’ who are educated middle and upper class liberals. He will receive less support in ‘red America’ the Midwest and South.

‘Bush did very well in Red America because he was seen as affable and folksy,’ Shoch said. ‘People see Kerry as an aloof Brahmin, and it doesn’t help that he’s from Massachusetts.’

Shoch said Kerry has attempted to change his image by ‘wearing jeans and becoming less stiff.’

Though Kerry’s image might be a setback in his campaign, he is noted for both his military service and his legislative record as a senator. According to Democracy in Action, a political education group, Kerry is ‘leading on energy and small business relief.’

According to the group’s website, Kerry was the ‘leading opponent’ of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and he along with Sen. Joe Lieberman his fellow Democratic nominee contender from Connecticut eventually ‘succeeded in putting a halt to the [Bush] Administration’s proposal.’

Kerry was also chair of the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, where he ‘sought to provide emergency economic relief for small businesses in the wake of the September 11 attacks,’ according to the website. His bill to provide aid to small businesses was passed by the Senate last year.

Before he became a senator, Kerry served as a lieutenant in the navy during the Vietnam War and was awarded three Purple Hearts. Shoch said Kerry’s military experience could help boost his image during a time when war is on the national agenda.

Though his veteran status will help Kerry, Shoch said the ‘political context of our times’ might cause him problems in winning the Democratic nomination for president. The public is overlooking domestic issues and focusing on national security, Shoch said, which is boosting Bush’s popularity at the expense of Democratic contenders.

‘Democrats are at an advantage when it comes to the economy,’ he said. ‘But due to 9/11 and the war, voters aren’t judging Bush on the economy. Kerry is less in trouble because he has credibility as a war veteran, but he has to find some middle ground on the war.’

Kerry’s fickle war views will never settle, Shoch said. Kerry will probably take one stance during the Democratic primaries, Shoch added, when voters are more liberal-minded, and another during the election.

In New Hampshire, Shoch said Kerry might say something like what he wrote in an editorial in Time magazine: ‘I don’t think we should take a back seat to the Germans or Japanese in creating clean energies no American soldier will ever have to risk life and limb to protect.’

During the final phase of the election process, however, Shoch said Kerry might reiterate what he has put on his website: ‘As a global leader in an ever-shrinking world, the United States has a duty to protect human rights and human life.’

In a speech he gave in New Hampshire on April 4, Kerry caused controversy when he accused Bush of ignoring U.S. allies and brushing aside diplomacy.

‘What we need now is not just a regime change in Saddam Hussein and Iraq, but we need a regime change in the United States,’ Kerry said.

According to Ebeid, ‘the flippant comment’ could cost Kerry votes in the upcoming election.

Both Shoch and Ebeid agreed that Kerry’s position on the war has been changing since he voted for resolutions last October giving Bush the authority to invade Iraq. However, in a recent interview with the Des Moines Register, Kerry said he regretted ‘that this administration has not lived up to the standards of diplomacy set forth in the resolution.’

‘Kerry’s may be a complex position on the war, but unlike any of his fellow candidates, he has struck exactly the right tone,’ said Harold Meyerson, of The American Prospect, a Boston-based political magazine.

Calling Kerry a ‘tough dove,’ Meyerson said Kerry was willing to go to war but wanted to consider other options first.

‘Whether or not I agree with what’s he’s doing, it’s strategically the best thing to,’ Shoch said of Kerry’s ambivalence on the war.

For now, Kerry is focused on a grassroots campaign.

His Boston-based campaign office is currently targeting Boston’s huge student population to foster support for his nomination. The campaign office has organized steering committees and representatives from schools all over the Greater Boston area — such as Boston University, Northeastern University, University of Massachusetts at Amherst and Tufts University meet once a month.

‘The steering committee is a student outreach program that is a way to get students and involved and give them a voice on the campaign,’ said Emily Anderson, head of the Northeastern steering committee. ‘Students report on what the general feeling is on each of their campuses.’

Anderson said that the group has been very enthusiastic.

‘Any time you can get a group of college students together on a Saturday at noon, that’s pretty good,’ she said. ‘And since we’re in New England, we can even go to New Hampshire,’ for the first presidential primary.

Shoch said Kerry’s primary target should not be college students, but rather ‘Red America.’ The challenge lies in the mainstream American public, who still have terrorism, Iraq and George Bush looming in their minds, Shoch said.

Wade said the Republican party will probably try to accuse democrats of being to drive voters away from candidates like Kerry.

‘They’ll stop at nothing to win, and it’s shameful that they reduce our politics to that level,’ Wade said. ‘But if that’s the fight they want to pick, they’re messing with the wrong Democrat.’