California gubernatorial candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger may be able to defeat Gov. Gray Davis in the state’s recall election, but he will have to face a financial crisis in the state with little political credibility to fall back on, California political activist and former California State Sen. Tom Hayden said at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University Tuesday.
Davis faced an opposition of 130 candidates, including Schwarzenegger actor and former Mr. Universe and Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, in the state’s first- ever recall election Tuesday. Davis also faced mounting public criticism for the state’s unprecedented budget deficit nearly $40 billion in the months leading up to the election.
Early evening exit polls showed 56 percent of California voters favored a recall of Davis, the vast majority of which elected Schwarzenegger to replace him, The New York Times reported early this morning. With 14 percent of precincts reporting, Schwarzenegger was beating Bustamante, his closest opponent, by a landslide 52 percent to 30 percent, Reuters reported this morning.
Secretary of State Kevin Shelley estimated that 60 percent – or 9.25 million – of the state’s 15.4 million registered voters cast ballots, which would make it the state’s highest voter turnout in a nonpresidential election since 1982, according to the Times report.
Hayden said the most heated election as many as 15 million registered for the Tuesday’s election is also the most unpredictable.
‘I think that the analysts have to be cautious [in making predictions] because there has never been anything like this,’ Hayden said. ‘Who knows what elderly Republican women are going to do? Suddenly they become the swing vote, possibly turning away from Arnold.
‘On the other hand, there [are] a lot of young white males, looking for a fight,’ who could support Davis, Hayden said.
Recent allegations of sexual misconduct by Schwarzenegger further complicate the race, Hayden said.
Speculations that Schwarzenegger sexually assaulted young women during his career as a bodybuilder and actor have caused many voters to turn away from him, giving Davis and Bustamante who placed second in numerous polls leading up to the election better chances, but Hayden said he believes it is not enough to stop the actor.
‘Everybody agrees that it turned the election around, but probably too late,’ he said.
According to Hayden, Davis has dug his own grave by failing to galvanize a solid political base.
‘When Davis decided to start a political career, he was too methodical about it,’ Hayden said. ‘He distanced himself from the left, anyone who wants to expand the scope of the public sector teachers’ unions, blacks, feminists, gays, etc. essentially, from the core constituencies of [the] Democratic Party.’
Without a solid base, Davis barely edged out Republican Bill Simon during his re-election last November, winning 47 percent of the votes to Simon’s 43 percent.
‘The opportunity for revenge was there,’ for Republicans, Hayden said. ‘If you are under 50 in [re-election], it is quite likely that the recall would put you under 50 again.’
But Hayden also said the future does not look bright for the former Mr. Universe either, who will have to deal with the fiscal crisis while having to build a reputation for himself as a competent politician, Hayden said.
‘There’s no way politically to raise taxes or cut programs in California,’ he said. ‘Therefore, his only claim to political achievement is completely hollow and may never occur. In which case, he will be presiding over a state that’s in budgetary free-fall in 2006, during which he will have to run with political agendas and accomplishments, not his superficial charm.’
In fact, many who attended the forum agreed that Schwarzenegger garnered much of his political support from superficial coverage in the media.
‘You see him on ET and Extra, flexing his muscles, showing his million-dollar smile,’ said one audience member, during a question and answer forum. ‘But he has no political views. He’s not a politician.’
As for Bustamante, a perceived leader of the Latino population, Hayden remained pessimistic.
‘Cruz is not a strong statewide candidate,’ Hayden said. ‘My secret assumption is that Davis did not want a strong Democrat candidate, so he can face Arnold in the recall one-on-one.’
Hayden pointed out that the public has had mixed reactions to the recall some have called it a meaningless political farce while others have hailed it as a display of true democracy.
‘This will probably be claimed as a great historical moment in American politics by people,’ Hayden said. ‘It showed propensity of voters to come back to the two parties. It created a deep hatred between young white males and experienced females. It was ugly, but with the great weather they have in California, they should learn to live with small shams like this.’
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