So, you think this is your year, right? You’re thinking, “I’ll pick the mighty Catamounts of Vermont to win it all!”
Well, for all you nerds out there (see: ENG students), I’ve come up with a solution that’s about as exciting as the Ben Stein teaching astrophysics.
It’s all about the numbers.
Since the NCAA Tournament went to the 64-team format in 1985 (and has now changed to the wonderfully useless 65-team format), thousands of fans have spent hours in front of computer spreadsheets attempting to break down the secret to success of the Big Dance.
Most times, it just doesn’t work out for them. What seems like a good statistic in one tournament might turn out to be like the Atlanta Hawks – utterly useless. So what is the best predictor for determining how far a team will go in any given year?
Some people say it’s all in the team name, and are picking Gonzaga to go all the way. Those people also believe ESPN is a telekinetic discipline. I’d like to think it’s a little more scientific than that, but then again, I’ve been known to be wrong (see: BU men’s basketball).
As I was beginning the all-encompassing journey through Bracketville 2004, I started realizing the similarities between picking tournament teams and the “Sabremetrics” of Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane, as described in Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball.
“Sabremetrics” is a system of statistical analysis that places emphasis on a player’s stats – particularly on-base percentage – rather than on a scout’s gut feeling of the future. Beane feels that on-base percentage is the best indicator for how well a player will perform offensively in the league, and will not hesitate to pass on the physically gifted players if they carry low on-base percentages.
So what is the NCAA Tournament’s equivalent of on-base percentage? Is there one statistic that Final Four teams have in common year after year? Is there one statistic that will make you the pick guru of your office/dorm/cbssportsline.com pool?
No. It doesn’t exist. I promise you that one statistic, no matter how sure of a bet it is, will get you into trouble as you ride into Pick City.
But after rummaging through statistics like a squirrel through garbage, I’ve come up with a few that have consistently helped past NCAA Tournament champions get through the hardest six games of the year.
I looked at 10 season-averaged statistics: field goal percentage, free throw percentage, opponent’s field goal percentage, opponent’s points per game, rebounds, assist-to-turnover ratio, blocks and steals.
A good defense will overcome a good offense in the tournament, and more weight should be placed on defensive statistics than offensive numbers. But I couldn’t ignore the fact that the champions have an average free throw percentage of 71.23 percent. Success at the line is crucial in crunch time, so if your team shoots free throws like Shaq, leave them in the first round.
Yet, offense isn’t everything. Arizona won the tournament in 1997 shooting just 66 percent from the line. The key was that it held its opponents’ field goal percentage to 43 percent.
Defense is also a pretty good indicator of who wins championships. No champion since 1985 has ever been out-rebounded on average throughout its championship season. Only one team (the 1997 Arizona Wildcats) finished with fewer blocks than its opponents, and only two teams (the 1986 Louisville Cardinals and the 1989 Michigan Wolverines) finished with fewer steals than their opponents. Champions have held their opponents to an average of just under 70 points per game and 42.22 percent shooting from the field.
Additionally, every single tournament champion has finished with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than one. Maryland, the 2002 champion, had a ratio that was close to 1.5. The ability to protect the ball should never be underestimated. Although this seems fairly obvious, many people choose to ignore turnovers because they go hand-in-hand with an explosive offense that takes chances.
Most of the top teams in the country are solid in these categories. The challenge is to use these categories to determine potential upsets. For example, take a team like Murray State. This team ranks among the top 10 in the nation in scoring, has dominated on the boards with 37.4 per game, has averaged 19 assists per game and holds its opponents under 70 points. Other low-seeded teams that have performed well in these areas include Manhattan (76 percent from the line), East Tennessee State (ranked among the top teams in the nation in blocks and steals) and Air Force (leading the nation in opponent’s points per game with 50.1).
Although there are always a few aberrations, trust in the numbers – they won’t usually deceive you.
But, I can understand if you don’t want to be a complete dork like me. In that case, I’ve got two final pieces of advice for you before Thursday afternoon:
Pick the team with the coolest name, and then join my pool.
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