Sanctions, when hard-hitting and globally agreed upon, can be effective tools to change the behavior of regimes. South Africa was able to (start to) move past its days of apartheid because of global sanctions on the white regime. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — better known in the United States as the Iran Deal – was a rare instance of unity among the major superpowers of the world. I use the word “was” because the Iran Deal is dead, or at least forever altered.
The United States officially reimposed all sanctions it imposed prior to the signing of the JCPOA. This decision further isolates America under Trump. The move has produced resentment and resistance from the deal’s other supporters, most notably the European powers involved.
The JCPOA will continue to be supported by the European Union, China and Russia by helping Iran avoid sanctions from the United States. “Special purpose vehicles” will help Iran do business beyond the limits of financial sanctions.
Some will argue it gambles with the world order. The U.S.-Europe alliance grows weaker, uncertainty pervades oil markets and political moderates inside Tehran will have their power diminished. However, many of these predictions are much too simple.
The reality is that the major effect of this move will be the EU trading less with Iran. But Iranian analysts claim the world’s major banks would be unlikely to handle Iranian transactions for fear of facing massive penalties. Large international banks have mostly refused to transfer money to and from the country even after the suspension of sanctions under the nuclear deal.
Will the U.S.-EU alliance truly fade away? No. As much as President Trump might diminish the importance of decades worth of cooperation, it is simply a storm passing by, not an asteroid terraforming the Earth. Will the oil markets react negatively? Barely. Russia and China will still import Iranian oil, and Saudi Arabia can pick up the production reduction. Sanctions before did not drastically increase oil prices. Will moderates inside Tehran grow weaker? Perhaps. But Iran is one of the most conservatively ruled country in the world. Only a coup or revolution will fundamentally change Iranian politics.
That being said, there is still little rational behind President Trump’s removal of the sanctions. The best explanation is that it was a hallmark of President Barack Obama’s legacy. There are few things that motivate Trump more than his hatred for the former president. If the concern was about Iranian militarism, this was a terrible move.
As Fareed Zakaria argued in a column for The Washington Post, “If Iran is as dangerous and malign an actor as [Trump] says, surely it is best to have its nuclear program frozen at a pre-military level and monitored 24/7. … If there is a strategy behind Trump’s move, it is probably regime change.”
While regime change may seem to be the answer, it has rarely worked out very well. The last U.S. intervention in Iranian affairs led to the events that caused the Iranian Revolution itself. Who would like to risk another Iraq or Libya. Arguing for regime change is playing with fire.
That being said, destroying the Iran Deal will have less of an impact than is expected. Of course it furthers American hypocrisy and untrustworthiness. But I seriously doubt our trustworthiness was at high levels before.
The Iran Deal was never supposed to fundamentally change Iranian politics or U.S.-Iranian relations. It was merely a step toward better relations. Destroying it is just a step backward. A good decision? No. One that will detrimentally affect U.S. foreign policy? No.
