2020 Breakdown: Beware the “Electability” Trap

Now that the first few Democratic primaries and caucus races are over, Super Tuesday is closer and more important than ever. 

 Democratic voters in 14 states, one U.S. territory and abroad will head to the polls on March 3, where nearly 1,400 delegates are at stake. A candidate must receive a majority of approximately 4,000 delegates to win the presidential nomination. So, winning big on Super Tuesday decides whether Senator Bernie Sanders or a more moderate candidate will ascend into presumptive nominee status. 

As voters in Massachusetts, California and other states cast their ballots on Super Tuesday, I only have one important piece of advice: don’t fall for the “electability” trap. 

The notion of a candidate’s “electability” has been an incredibly popular point of discussion in this cycle. It seems as though every time you turn on CNN or MSNBC, there is always a panel of political pundits debating over which candidate is best suited to beat our current catastrophe of a president come November.

If you’ve watched one of these discussions, you’ve seen them all. Until his abysmal fourth and fifth place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, these discussions seemed to end with the consensus that former Vice President Joe Biden was the only candidate who could beat incumbent Donald Trump. 

“He’ll appeal to moderates,” they said. “He’ll win over independents and disillusioned Republicans,” they said. How true have these sentiments proved to be so far? 

 Despite his rough start, some pundits still think Biden is the only viable candidate who can seriously compete with Trump. 

 Biden surrogates often argue that his poor finishes thus far are not an indication of his electability. Rather, Iowa and New Hampshire are “extremely white” and can’t accurately predict the outcome of the broader presidential race. His campaign relies heavily on a win in South Carolina, a state he has consistently polled well in, to gain enough momentum to propel him to victory on Super Tuesday.  

 While it’s true that Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white and unrepresentative of the Democratic party, the argument for Biden’s electability moving forward is still one with almost no legs to stand on. It’s an argument that completely takes the Democratic base for granted and operates under the assumption that independents are the make-or-break voting bloc in 2020. 

The argument for Biden’s electability assumes that he can win the presidential nomination despite his failures so far. And if he does win, the argument still assumes that the entirety of the Democratic party will rally behind him, leaving only independents and ex-Republicans to persuade in the general election.

 The problem here is that the Democratic party is one of great ideological and demographic diversity. To win the presidency, the Democratic nominee must be able to energize and invigorate large swaths of left-leaning voters. Unfortunately for Biden, his campaign has lacked such energy with key voting blocs. 

 In 2020, millennials and Generation Z will make up 37 percent of the electorate, according to Pew Research Center. Among American college students, Biden polls at a mere seven percent compared to opponent Sanders’s staggering 53 percent, according to the latest Chegg and College Pulse poll.

 Additionally, Hispanics will be the largest minority group in the electorate at 13.3 percent, according to Pew Research Center. NBC News entrance polls in the Nevada Caucus show Sanders winning over a majority of support from Latinos and Hispanics at 53 percent of the vote. Although he was second, Biden trailed far behind at 16 percent of the vote.

 The case for Biden’s electability assumes that he is the best candidate to bring in independents during the general election. However, a SurveyUSA poll surveying registered Democrats, Republicans and independents, found that Sanders would beat Trump by nine points to Biden’s seven. Clearly, the former vice president isn’t as electable as political pundits would have you believe. 

 When in the election booths this primary season, I strongly urge you to tread the “electability” trap carefully. Instead of voting for the candidate presumed to be the “most electable” or “best to beat Trump,” vote for the candidate who energizes you and makes you hopeful about the future. It’s our only path to victory in 2020.