Changing climate patterns could cause more storms and water surges for low-lying cities such as Boston, according to experts and a study published Feb. 14 in Nature Climate Change.
The study, “Physically Based Assessment of Hurricane Surges under Climate Change,” used climate models and two hydrodynamic models to determine the storm surge for New York under different weather conditions.
It used present and predicted climate conditions with hydrodynamic models, which create forecasts for different coastal areas to determine the risk of surge threat.
The study calculated climate change ultimately increases surge flood levels for New York, giving “an additional rationale for a comprehensive approach to managing the risk of climate change, including long-term adaptation planning and greenhouse-gas emissions mitigation.”
The study also concluded the effect of “storm climatology change” and sea-level rise would cause floods to happen more often. Flooding in New York that usually occurs only once every 100 years may occur once every 20 years.
Research over the years has predicted the average maximum winds and rainfall of tropical cyclones in a warmer climate will increase, according to the study.
But the effect of climate change on hurricane size has still not been investigated, according to the study. Some models predicted more severe storm surges than others. The regional storm frequency also affects the surge risk.
Rob Garrity, executive director of the Massachusetts Climate Action Network, said he is not surprised about the new data.
“It makes a lot of sense,” Garrity said. “There is a lot more heat energy in the atmosphere due to global warming and so there will be larger storms.”
It is difficult to completely measure the impact that climate change could have on hurricane surges, according to the study, and high-resolution models of hurricane surges are expensive and limited.
Garrity said he agreed the government should be funding or sponsoring technology, but there are parts of government that have been aware of these problems for years.
“The Deer Island Wastewater Treatment Plant was built several feet higher to account for higher sea levels,” he said.
Garrity said Boston, as a low-lying city, is “very susceptible” to flooding.
The danger of climate change is hard for people to comprehend because it is so outside of their experience, Garrity said.
“People expect the world to work pretty much the way it always has,” he said. “They do not expect such a dramatic change within their lifetime.”
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