• Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”) • Judi Dench (“Iris”) • Nicole Kidman (“Moulin Rouge”) • Sissy Spacek (“In the Bedroom”) • Renee Zellweger (“Bridget Jones’ Diary”)

A race that originally had one clear frontrunner just has now degenerated into a tug-of-war where only one thing is certain: Ms. Zellweger need not hold her breath. While it’s impossible to ever rule out the Judi Dench factor, Britain’s grand dame is becoming the U.K’s answer to Meryl Streep with her perennial nominations, and since “Iris” was widely disliked by critics and a large percentage of the voting bloc, she’s out, too.

That leaves a heated three horse race between engenue Halle Berry, who has the rapidly-rising-young-starlet momentum of an Angelina Jolie or a Gwyneth Paltrow; Nicole Kidman, who has spent more time in the spotlight this past year than probably anyone else and also boasts TWO widely acclaimed performances from the year (“The Others” being her second); and the bold, brilliant Sissy Spacek, who up until one month ago seemed a lock for her second, career-crowning Oscar victory for “In the Bedroom.”

Kidman has potential to upset if either votes split between the other two, or the “Moulin Rouge” juggernaut, currently on the march, becomes too powerful to stop. But in any other case, expect a neck-and-neck showdown between two Awards darlings in two very different performances, and then expect the Academy to hand it over to Berry at the last minute, who by the color of her skin (in a year drenched with politics), the inevitably emotional acceptance speech and the SAG award in hand, will triumph.

WILL WIN: Halle Berry SHOULD WIN: Sissy Spacek REALISTIC UPSET: Nicole Kidman