The Metro Area Planning Council offered a glimpse into Boston’s future and the surrounding region’s demographics in a briefing Tuesday, predicting a dramatic increase in immigration to the region by 2030.
Holly St. Clair, director of the MAPC Data Center, said the council’s study predicted the region’s immigrant population would grow to almost a quarter of the region’s total population by 2030, marking a 10 percent increase from the 2000 census. This increase will occur as the Caucasian population in the region decreases from 82 percent in the year 2000 to a projected 69 percent in the year 2030.
“Many people are leaving the region, but strong international immigration makes up for the loss,” St. Clair said, pointing to population trends since 1970.
The MAPC created the projection by using census data since 1970, land use information and conversations with town officials. St. Clair stressed that the MPAC’s findings are only a projection into the future of Boston’s makeup.
“We are not predicting the future, we are projecting the future,” St. Clair said.
While the study projected the number of students attending area colleges will remain close to current figures, the number of citizens over the age of 55 is expected to rise, attributing the increase to the aging baby boom generation.
The study predicted an increased job demand in business sectors such as healthcare, business services and transportation, projecting that nearly half of all new jobs and services in the Boston area will be concentrated in four main areas by 2030.
Despite the predicted job increase, St. Clair said the jobs made available may not be a correct fit for the region because immigrants may not have the proper education to fit skilled labor positions.
St. Clair also said that limited access to drinking water, as well as congested roads and highways will be prevalent as the population increases. Resulting tax increases may create heavy burdens on low-income families.
To accommodate the population increase, the study stated property tax is expected to continue to increase, and financial aid the towns receive for non-educational purposes, such as fire and police, may drop by nearly 10 percent.
St. Clair said rising property taxes will especially pose a problem for the new immigrant population who may not have the desired skills for the job market.