Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney should have no trouble winning the Republican primary in the Commonwealth on Super Tuesday, said Professor Douglas Kriner, who teaches American politics at Boston University.
About 64 percent of Bay State Republicans said they would vote for Romney, with Rick Santorum trailing in second place at 16 percent and Ron Paul at 7 percent, according to a recent Suffolk University poll.
Romney’s background in Massachusetts politics, Kriner said, should serve as a major advantage in Tuesday’s primary.
“Romney will certainly be helped by his time as Massachusetts governor in the primary,” he said in an email. “Massachusetts voters already have a strong connection with Romney and he is close to a lock to win.”
Despite Romney’s tendency throughout his campaign to distance himself from the moderate policy positions he endorsed as the governor of Massachusetts, Kriner said, his standing with the state’s voters will likely remain unharmed.
“Romney’s opponents are quick to point out a number of significant changes in positions between Governor Romney and Candidate Romney . . . [but] Romney’s tacking to the right to win the Republican primary is unlikely to hurt his chances in Massachusetts,” he said.
To broaden his appeal among conservative voters, Romney should distance himself from the issues surrounding healthcare reform, said Greg DeSocio, president of the Boston University College Republicans.
“The healthcare [issue] might work against him,” DeSocio, a BU School of Management senior, said. “However, the argument he’s been making, which I think has been a really strong one, is that some things might be good for a state but bad for the country.”
Despite the negative publicity tied to Romney’s history as a policymaker, he said, what should ultimately draw voters to Romney is his private sector experience.
“I think that’s really important because if you’ve been in the private sector,” he said, “then you really have a better understanding of the incentive that the private sector requires to perform hiring.”
Although Romney’s attempts to downplay his experience as governor in favor of his private sector experience may help develop support within the Republican party, it may have the opposite effect on moderates and Democrats, said Chris Towner, a sophomore involved with the Boston University College Democrats and a BU College of Arts and Sciences student.
“His moderate accomplishments like healthcare help make him much more appealing to Democrats than his opponents,” Towner said. “One of Mitt’s problems is that . . . he wishes they never happened – something that is sending Democrats, moderates and Independents running toward re-electing President [Barack] Obama.”
Romney’s public condemnation of these accomplishments, he said, will affect his chances in the general election, but should not do much to harm his chances in Tuesday’s Republican primaries.
“I think Super Tuesday will be a pretty decisive victory for Romney,” he said. “Both [Santorum and Gingrich] are extremely unappealing to the vast majority of Americans.”
Among the remaining candidates in the Republican race, Romney would be the most likely to garner support across party lines in the general election, said CAS sophomore Gregory Phipps, the BUCD campaign relations director.
“Romney has a good moderate record in Massachusetts and people may keep that in mind when they go to the polls in November,” Phipps said.
The biggest obstacle for Romney as the election cycle proceeds, he said, will be overcoming what has already been a long and difficult primary season.
“The longer the primaries go on, the more he’ll have to move to the right,” he said. “Doing that is going to alienate a lot of voters and I doubt he’ll be able to overcome that.”
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