• Guillaume Laurant ‘ Jean-Pierre Jeunet (“Amélie”) • Julian Fellowes (“Gosford Park”) • Christopher Nolan (“Memento”) • Milo Addica ‘ Will Rokos (” Monster’s Ball”) • Wes Anderson ‘ Owen Wilson (“The Royal Tenenbaums”)

The fan favorite seems to be Christopher Nolan for “Memento,” which is based on a short story by his brother (which begs the question, why is it up for “original screenplay?”) Despite receiving only one other nomination (editing), the film’s positive buzz could make a difference, and its script is probably the biggest factor in its success. “The Royal Tenenbaums” is a possible dark horse, but could be too quirky for the Academy’s taste, as evidenced by this being its lone nomination. That leaves “Amélie,” which might suffer since it already basically has a lock on Foreign Language Film (and foreigns rarely win writing categories, anyway); “Gosford Park,” which has a bunch of nominations going for it and seems right up the Academy’s alley; and “Monster’s Ball,” which has been praised more for its acting than for its script. Safe bets are either “Memento” or Julian Fellowes’ “Gosford Park,” though I’m picking “Memento,” since they might want to avoid rioting on college campuses everywhere.

WILL WIN: Christopher Nolan, Jonathan Nolan (story) for “Memento” SHOULD WIN: “Memento” REALISTIC UPSET: Wes Anderson, Owen Wilson for “The Royal Tenenbaums”