The lightweight division is the UFC’s most prestigious.
It’s housed some of the most dominant and highest-skilled champions in the sport’s history and it’s always been stacked with title contenders.
Matchmaking in the division puts a great deal of pressure on the UFC, especially with Islam Makhachev as champ.
Makhachev has the most title defenses in the division’s history and is on the verge of making more history.
One more win would tie Anderson Silva’s record 16-consecutive victories. Makhachev is also looking at the welterweight division in pursuit of a second belt, though with training partner Belal Muhammad as champ, he’ll likely wait for a different opponent.
Makhachev’s legacy is on the line for his last few lightweight fights. He’s bordering on greatest-of-all-time status, but only if he defends against worthy opponents.
Arman Tsarukyan is undoubtedly the most deserving of the current contenders.
It’s nearly impossible to compete with Makhachev’s ground game, but Tsarukyan is as good as it gets. He beat one of the best submission grapplers in the sport’s history, Charles Oliveira, at UFC 300.
In 2019, he stepped up to fight Makhachev for his UFC debut, and despite losing, represents one of the five decision wins on Makhachev’s promotion record.
Tsarukyan was scheduled to fight for the title in January, but pulled out 36 hours before with an injury. According to Dana White, he’ll be punished with a non-title fight before competing for the belt again.
This punishment might ruin the division.
Of the top five contenders, two are coming off losses — Tsarukyan is the only with multiple wins in a row.
He’s the sole lightweight with any case for a title shot, so here’s how I’d match up the remainder of the top of the division.
Max Holloway and Dan Hooker are close together in the rankings at six and four respectively. They’re two of the most exciting strikers in the sport, so the fight is a plus for the fans and fighters alike.
Holloway is a former featherweight champ and he holds a knockout win over Justin Gaethje, but is coming off his first knockout loss ever.
Hooker is seeing a career resurgence after defeating eighth-ranked Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 305.
Dustin Poirier, ranked fifth, will probably retire after his next fight this summer, hopefully in his hometown of Lafayette, Louisiana.
His title shot last year was likely his last chance at UFC gold. He should fight third-ranked Gaethje to break their tie — each with a win in the series.
That leaves Oliveira and Tsarukyan, who fought each other just last year.
A rematch doesn’t make much sense, but Makhachev holds a recent win over Oliveira and Tsarukyan’s next fight might not be for the title, so the lightweight division seems to be at an impasse.
Enter Ilia Topuria.
The featherweight champ will vacate his title and move up to lightweight, providing the stagnated division with a much-needed contender.
Topuria holds knockout wins over the two greatest featherweights ever: Alexander Volkanovski and Holloway, more than enough to earn him a shot at Makhachev’s title.
Yet, Makhachev has reportedly declined a fight with Topuria. It’s unfortunate, but Makhachev said he’d still be open to the fight if Topuria proved himself at lightweight.
Thankfully, there’s still an option here.
Topuria vs. Oliveira would leave Tsarukyan as the only fight available for Makhachev. While he cost the UFC by pulling out of UFC 311, he’s still the most deserving contender, and nobody has surpassed him since.
Topuria has called out Oliveira online, and Oliveira has responded much like Makhachev, asserting that Topuria didn’t deserve to fight him yet.
Oliveira has maintained since his UFC 309 win over Michael Chandler that he’s next in line for the title.
Since his round-two loss to Makhachev in 2022, Oliveira has book-ended his loss to Tsarukyan with wins over the seventh-ranked Chandler and ninth-ranked Beneil Dariush.
The wins are good, but he hasn’t shown enough improvement to warrant a rematch with the champ — especially one that comes before Tsarukyan’s try at the belt — so the UFC needs to book Oliveira with Topuria.
Provided the UFC doesn’t grant any undeserved title shots, there are two options at lightweight to build on the legacy of Makhachev and allow new ones to be created for Tsarukyan and Topuria.
Should Tsarukyan get the chance at the belt, match Topuria with Oliveira, and should Topuria get the shot, let Tsarukyan wait for the winner.
White is trying to send a message with his punishment, but Makhachev’s legacy will be severely damaged if his next two opponents aren’t Tsarukyan and Topuria.
