Most Valuable Player conversations are rarely undisputed because the criteria to win the prestigious award is undefined and invites multiple interpretations.
Four weeks remain in the NFL season, and the race is completely wide open — two rookies, the greatest quarterback in NFL history and two gunslingers who have both had unexpected seasons under center. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Derek Carr are the guys to follow.
Now, the hard part … what does “most valuable” mean? Yes, stats have to play a major role in deciding who wins the award, but the best player doesn’t always need to win the MVP. Most of the time the most valuable and the best happen to be synonymous.
Quarterbacks win this award at a staggering rate, and I have absolutely no problem with that. Thirteen of the last 16 winners have been quarterbacks, and 15 out of the 16 winners were on teams with at least 11 wins. This accolade awards the most important player (quarterback) on a great team.
If I could pick one guy in the NFL to try and win me the Super Bowl, I am picking Tom Brady. Even though he is 39, I don’t really think it is debatable. However, through 13 weeks, he is not my MVP so far.
It is almost impossible for a 39-year-old who misses a quarter of the NFL season to be in the conversation for NFL MVP. But at this point, Brady really shouldn’t surprise us anymore. He is averaging 308 passing yards per game and has the best touchdown to interception ratio in the league of 19 to 1.
Brady will get votes at the end of the season for the award, which is a testament to how good of a season he is having, since the future Hall-of-Famer missed the first four games.
Even though you might not think there is enough evidence against him, the league still deemed that he cheated, and that slightly hurts his case. The New England Patriots also went 3-1 without Brady, and although it may not seem fair, the team’s success in his absence hurts his candidacy.
A lot can change in the next four weeks, but Derek Carr has been the MVP in the league so far. Hard to believe we are living in a world where the Oakland Raiders are relevant again, but what Carr has done this year to lead his team to a 10-2 record is remarkable.
The knock on Carr is that he isn’t top three in the league for passer rating, passing yards or touchdowns. He leads the league, however, in fewest sacks and has the second-fewest interceptions for a quarterback who has played in every game this season.
The Raiders defense has been abysmal this year, and they have still won 10 games. They give up nearly 400 yards per game and allow 24.9 points per game, and he is asked to do the most of any of the top MVP candidates.
Carr is by no means the flashy MVP pick this year, especially when you are surrounded by Brady, Elliott and Prescott. Dallas is 11-1 and far and away the most surprising success story this year. Led by two rookies, the Cowboys are doing something we will remember for generations to come.
Prescott has 19 touchdowns and two interceptions, which is unbelievable for any player, especially a rookie. Unfortunately for Prescott’s MVP resume, it is not helpful to have the NFL’s leading rusher on your team. Elliott has over 200 rushing yards more than the second-leading rusher in the league, and he is averaging over 100 yards on the ground per game.
The reason neither of the rookies should win is because if you take one of them away, the team is still very strong. They don’t have as much value to their team as Brady or Carr do.
If Dallas runs the table and finishes 15-1, however, Prescott will probably win the MVP because if a team wins 15 games the quarterback is a mere lock to win the MVP.
Ryan and Drew Brees have both had great seasons, but both of their teams are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, and I am a firm believer that you have to be on one of the best teams in the league to be able to win the award. In order to have true “value,” your team needs to win at a high clip.
Nobody has been more valuable to his franchise in the past 15 years than Brady, but he has some work left to do to win the MVP. Pats fans — hold your breath because Brady doesn’t care about this column or about the MVP race, and you shouldn’t care about the latter either.
Brady is on a mission to win a Super Bowl, and if he can do that without bringing home individual hardware, I’m almost certain he’ll be fine with it.
