Brown takes lead over Warren in bid for Senate, polls show

U.S. Sen. Scott Brown has taken the lead during his bid for re-election by no more than 10 percent over Elizabeth Warren in recent polls.

In four out of five surveys conducted in the past month, the Republican incumbent holds a slight lead over chief Democratic rival and consumer advocate Warren.

Jim Barnett, Brown’s campaign manager, publicized the results of three separate polls commissioned by Mass Insight, Suffolk University and Rasmussen Reports in a press release. The polls showed Brown with leads of 10, 9 and 5 percentage points respectively.

“Brown has solidified his strong appeal and standing in the race,” Barnett said in the release. “His focus on jobs and favorable coverage of bipartisan legislation bearing his name have combined to reinforce thr positive impression that Massachusetts voters have of him.”

Another poll that showed Brown leading by 8 points, conducted by Western New England University, was released Sunday.

The release did not mention a poll commissioned by MassINC conducted a week after the Mass Insight poll that showed Warren leading by 3 points.

Professors from the Boston University political science department said they agreed Brown has had success appealing to moderates by casting key votes on a number of highly publicized issues.

“Senator Brown frequently champions his independence and . . . separates himself from the Republican leadership,” said Professor Douglas Kriner, who teaches American politics, in an email.

Although Massachusetts is a liberal state, Kriner said, the theme of independence from strict party-adherence might have a distinct appeal to many voters.

BU Professor and Political Science Department Chair Graham Wilson said he cautioned, however, that it is still too early in the campaign to read too much into polling.

Wilson said these results probably only reflect an “occasional spasm” in the direction of public opinion.

“Most people are not focused on the election at present,” he said.

The press secretary for the Warren campaign, Alethea Harney, also said polling this early should not be taken so seriously just yet. But she did say the results were evidence that Massachusetts families have “their work cut out for them” if they wanted to have a true advocate in D.C.

“We’ll let the political pundits debate the polls and watch them go up and down over the course of the campaign,” Harney said. “Elizabeth will keep working her heart out to talk to the people about Massachusetts about what she’ll do as their U.S. Senator to help middle class families get ahead.”

Harney said there is evidence of Warren’s continued momentum.

“We’ve had successful caucuses – more than 7,000 people participate in a field-related event – and [we’ve] signed up 40,000 volunteers,” she said.

But Brown supporters said the energy initially surrounding Warren’s candidacy had dissipated.

“[Warren] has struggled with a message that has veered from the politics of class struggle to, more recently, social and gender issues,” according to the release.

Wilson said decreased national attention on Warren could be the result of the Occupy movement fading into the background. He said this could have happened because her claim to fame relates to standing up for consumers against financial institutions.

“To the degree that [fewer] people are thinking about banks and the need to do something about them,” Wilson said, “it’s hard to maintain that initial momentum.”

The outcome of the race may be closely tied to the success of the President Barack Obama’s presidential campaign in Massachusetts, Kriner said.

“The infusion of energy, party organization, and campaign dollars . . . should be a big asset [to Warren],” he said.

Wilson said he agreed, and added that many Obama voters would simply vote for other Democrats as well. But he said each of the candidates would have to make their own case.

“There is going to be so much money in this race that there will be plenty of opportunity for each of them [Brown and Warren] to establish their own image,” he said.

Wilson said the importance of this race for students at BU could not be stressed enough.

“It’s going to be one of the most high-profile races in the country – massive attention, massive contribution,” he said. “It’s a great opportunity for them to get involved with the candidate of their choice.”