The final third of 2023 looks to continue the year’s trend of big fights. On Saturday, Saul “Canelo” Álvarez (59-2-2, 39 KOs) will defend his undisputed super middleweight title against Jermell Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KOs).
Charlo, who is undisputed at junior middleweight, is moving up two weight classes to take on Álvarez. His twin brother Jermall was originally slated to fight Álvarez but dropped out of the contest as he continues to deal with personal issues.
Undisputed versus undisputed puts this fight in rarefied air, which makes it worth the general public’s attention. The added spotlight only compounds all the questions the boxing world is already asking going into this fight.
Let’s break it down.
The big question surrounding Álvarez: is he on the decline? His last three performances — a loss and two victories that came from close decisions — aren’t what we are used to seeing from the face of the sport.
He became boxing’s biggest star by, arguably, being an active champion with several elite skills: his defense, his chin and his finishing ability.
Álvarez has looked increasingly vulnerable defensively in his recent fights and has been getting hit more than he’s used to. In his last outing, Álvarez knocked John Ryder down in the fifth round, but couldn’t get the finish. Álvarez is known to be a brilliant finisher, but he had to grind it out to beat Ryder, an opponent he would’ve typically dominated.
As for Jermell Charlo, he hasn’t fought since May of last year. He was slated to take on mandatory challenger Tim Tszyu back in January, but was forced out of the fight due to a broken left hand which required surgery. A broken hand is a major injury, though Charlo said it feels stronger than ever. Even if that’s true, boxers are known to struggle after long layoffs, not to mention the fact that Charlo is heading into the biggest fight of his career.
All that being said, Charlo’s coming off his best performance as a professional: a 10th-round knockout over Brian Castaño to become undisputed.
But the task ahead of him is great. He has to pack on 14 pounds, which would have been a big challenge regardless of who he was fighting. He will need to answer several questions in the pursuit of a victory.
Will he be slower? Will he hit as hard? Will he be able to take Álvarez’s best punch? Will he still be light on his feet? Most importantly, will he fully trust his surgically repaired left hand?
At his usual weight, Charlo packs a punch. He isn’t the most active boxer in the ring, but he has a great jab and throws violent combinations starring his left hook, his best punch. In terms of defense, he tends to let his opponents tee off back at him, which he weathers with his great chin.
Álvarez connects on 35.4% of his punches and 46.3% of his power shots, which rank sixth and seventh among all boxers, respectively, according to Compubox data. Charlo needs to be active from bell to bell and not allow Álvarez to control the ring. He can’t allow Álvarez to tee off on him on the ropes. Charlo needs to physically impose his larger frame on Álvarez, dirty up the fight, and not allow his opponent to work from range.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
I think Álvarez is going to be too much for Charlo. If Charlo performs as he usually does, Álvarez is going to take advantage of his inactivity in the ring. Charlo isn’t a hard fighter to back up. He’s had success fighting off the ropes, but Álvarez isn’t a guy who’s going to give his opponent an easy time in that situation.
With that being said, Charlo is going to have success landing hits on Álvarez. I mentioned how Álvarez’s defense isn’t what it used to be, and Charlo needs to put it on Álvarez and not allow him to get square.
Álvarez still hits hard, but he doesn’t have that one-punch knockout power he once possessed. I don’t see him knocking out Charlo, but I see him controlling the ring, countering his opponent effectively and not allowing him to get comfortable. If you can’t bring it to Álvarez, you’re not going to beat him.
Prediction: Álvarez retains his titles by unanimous decision.
