Even if you’re not an NFL fan, chances are you’ve heard of Aaron Rodgers.
Whether it’s his 2011 Super Bowl victory or infamous ayahuasca retreats, he’s one of the most influential figures in modern NFL history.
As a quarterback, Rodgers already commands a high salary. Add in his legendary cadence and masterful defense-reading abilities, and he seems like the perfect package.
But at 41 years old and after a relatively rough two-year tenure with the New York Jets, it’s safe to say he’s far from his prime.
Despite this, Rodgers is not done. After earning over $380 million dollars throughout his illustrious two-decade career thus far, he shows no signs of slowing down —at least on paper.
Mike Florio of NBC’s Pro Football Talk predicts Rodger’s potential contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers could reach $90 million over two years, with $40 million guaranteed.
It makes sense that quarterback-needy teams like the Steelers and the New York Giants are in pursuit of the Packers legend. He carries a big name and a plethora of career statistics that all but guarantee his status as a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
But at this point in his career, is the price tag worth it?
The quarterback position is debatably the most important position on the offense. Therefore, it makes sense that obtaining a healthy, stable and efficient quarterback is important for every team, especially those in the rebuilding phase.
Teams that are rebuilding have so many holes to fill between linebackers, offensive lineman and safeties. So does Rodgers’ history warrant spending nearly $100 million on a quarterback?
My answer is no.
Yes, the quarterback market has a low supply and an extremely high demand. Teams are scrambling — pun intended — to find their guy, but there are many more avenues to find the “one.”
At 41 years old, Rodgers is clearly at the tail end of his career. Wherever he lands, he’s going to be a “bridge quarterback,” one that serves as a temporary solution between a team’s former quarterback, such as a recent retiree, and a more permanent future solution, such as a young draft pick. Sure, Rodgers can win games, but he’s certainly not in a position to win a Super Bowl.
Teams like the Steelers have to decide whether the tradeoff to have a big name like Rodgers is worth the financial burden.
Under Head Coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have enjoyed a non-losing record — winning at least 9 games in an 18-week season — in all of the past 18 seasons, but they have been mediocre at best, sometimes only winning just over half the games in a season.
Can the Steelers afford another few years of mediocrity, paired with a quarterback with an ego bigger than his single Lombardi Trophy?
In the NFL, draft position is determined by a team’s record. The lower a team’s winning percentage, the higher their draft position will be. So if the Steelers hypothetically sign Rodgers and keep winning but fall short of the Super Bowl, their lower draft position may set them back years.
The Steelers must consider their time preference — is the short-term gain worth the long-term tradeoff?
Rodgers’ failed two-year campaign with the New York Jets should be drilled in the minds of every Steelers fan. Rodgers’ release from the Jets set them back $14 million in 2025 and $35 million in 2026. In typical Jets fashion, they set a messy precedent for the rest of the NFL to avoid following.
The only reason why teams may find Rodgers’ behavior acceptable is because of the power associated with his name. It’s a prime example of the price-quality heuristic in behavioral economics. This heuristic states that individuals or organizations will choose a more expensive option, Rodgers, because they associate price with better quality — in this case, more wins.
So let’s escape this Rodgers-run quarterback market and think realistically for a minute. As a New York Giants fan, I was thrilled to hear that my team was pursuing Rodgers. However, I soon grew frustrated with having to wait on him.
If he retires today, I’ll remember his amazing achievements rather than his disastrous downfall. For Rodgers, it may be in his rational self-interest to hang up his cleats.
