NEMINSKI: Even if Scott Brown loses, the GOP has already won

We are just a few days from the start of October, a month where the dedicated political science student is out making phone calls for the campaign, or is glued to Politico and Real Clear Politics. Yes, it is that time of the year again: election season, or more specifically, midterm season. The season just about every presidential administration over the past 30 years has come to hate.

The main story dominating the news this election cycle is if Republicans can take control of the Senate. The forecast shifts back and forth each day, as individual factors and candidates impact each race.

One of these candidates is former Republican U.S. Sen. from Massachusetts Scott Brown. After Brown lost his reelection bid to U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, he moved to New Hampshire, the state where he spent some of his childhood and most of his summers. When Brown declared his intention to run for Senate, many National Democrats labeled him as a carpetbagger, a term which has hurt him in the polls. Nevertheless, Brown has made the race competitive.

While early polls had him trailing incumbent U.S. Sen. from New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen, more recent numbers have the race in a dead heat. Some even have Brown ahead. Regardless of the outcome, Brown’s entrance into the race has brought Republicans across the nation slightly closer to capturing the Senate.

Before Brown entered the race, the GOP could not seem to field a candidate who would make the race competitive. Most major polling sites, such as Real Clear Politics, dismissed the midterm Senate election as a “safe” race for Democrats. Keeping New Hampshire out of play meant that Democrats and Democratic-leaning super PACs could focus their efforts and money elsewhere.

Republicans, meanwhile, would be forced to throw money at a race they could only hope would eventually become competitive. Now, things have drastically changed, and if the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee does not keep its eye (and its money) on New Hampshire, the Senate seat could easily fall into Republican hands.

Therefore, Brown entering the race is a huge win for Republicans. The path to the Senate majority for Republicans can run through many states, even if it does not specifically run through New Hampshire. Overall, Republicans have 41 Senate seats that are either not up for election, or are considered “safe” by national polling agencies. That requires Republicans to pick up only 10 more seats from all of the races that are considered competitive.

Of these races, Real Clear Politics cites six races that are either “likely” or “leaning” Republican, which leaves Republicans to pick up only four seats from seven highly competitive “toss up” states. These states include Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, New Hampshire and North Carolina. The good news for Republicans? Some of these states voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, a statistic that many pundits think give Republicans an advantage.

This is why Brown’s entry into the race was key. He moved New Hampshire into the “toss up” category, giving Senate Republicans one additional state it could move through to take the Senate. National Democrats now have to move extra resources into New Hampshire, which takes away from critical races like Alaska, North Carolina and Iowa.

Thanks to Brown, the New Hampshire Senate race can be described as a virtual coin toss. Regardless, if Brown does not win his race, he indirectly helps other Republicans win in key battleground states, which makes his Senate bid pretty significant, whether he wins or he loses.