When the BU men’s basketball team won eight straight games and found itself atop the conference standings with a 9-2 record, it was rather easy to ignore the team’s weaknesses. Poor defensive rebounding? Doesn’t matter ‘-‘- opponents aren’t capitalizing on the second-chance opportunities. A lack of depth? Who cares! Corey Lowe and John Holland don’t look tired out on the floor.
Funny how things change once a team loses three in a row. All of a sudden the Terriers are 9-5, locked into third place in the standings, and looking to regain traction. It’s not exactly a situation in need of a panic room, but reasons for optimism aren’t at the tip of everyone’s tongue.
Fans that paid attention during BU’s earlier midseason slide should be familiar with the present situation. It’s not easy to stay positive in the face of adversity. The task at hand is somewhat different this time, though.
Rewind to the beginning of conference play, shortly after the new year, when news of Tyler Morris’ and Carlos Strong’s season-ending injuries broke. BU snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against a young Albany team while Corey Lowe sat courtside, benched after picking up two technical fouls against Holy Cross the week before. It was the team’s fifth consecutive loss.
Not quite two months later, it’s easy to say the Terriers could win ‘-‘- and win big ‘-‘- without Morris and Strong. At the time, however, nobody knew what BU would look like without the two junior guards. Morris appeared to be regaining some of his freshman-year form after a slow start to the season; Strong, a pure perimeter shooter, was perhaps the most obvious beneficiary of BU’s 3-happy offensive scheme.
In early January, nobody knew Jake O’Brien would solidify his status as a Rookie of the Year candidate. Scott Brittain ranks among the top 20 America East players in scoring average during conference play, and is eighth in rebounding average within that same group. But when conference play began, the Canadian forward had just 13 points to his name. As January flowed into February, we learned more about how BU would adapt to its shorter bench, and as the team won, confidence grew.
The current losing streak is three games instead of five, but there are other, more significant reasons why the Terriers’ present difficulties are less difficult than the previous set. Lowe and John Holland combined for 17 points in Saturday’s loss to Binghamton, a highly improbable occurrence. Despite that, the Terriers overcame a substantial halftime deficit before falling just one point short. Given even average production from BU’s stars, the Bearcats would be the team in third, not the Terriers.
Of course, it can be dangerous to rely on counterfactual statements, so let’s look at the facts. During BU’s eight-game winning streak, the Terriers outscored opponents by almost 13 points on average. Included were a double-digit win at Binghamton, four road wins overall, and two overtime wins. When the Terriers couldn’t run away from opponents early, they held tough and won close contests with gritty play.
Strong and Morris represented lost contributions when they went down to injury. BU’s overall performance against Vermont, Binghamton and Stony Brook may have been worse than expected, but after a month and a half of watching the current roster play, there are no questions about this group’s peak level of performance.
So how can the Terriers resume their winning ways for an extended period of time? It sounds simple, but the answer is win the shooting percentage battle. BU’s effective field goal percentages (a stat that adjusts for the added value of a 3-point shot), or eFG%, has fallen in recent games. Against Vermont and Binghamton, BU posted its two lowest figures in conference play ‘-‘- 44.7 and 39.0, respectively.
Terrier turnovers produced a Vermont blowout, but BU wouldn’t have won that game even without the turnovers. The Terrier shooting performance was too poor, both offensively and defensively ‘-‘- Vermont’s eFG% was a gaudy 61.5. Although BU shot better last night than the previous two outings, Stony Brook’s 65.1 eFG% rendered the improvement moot.
Intuitively, this makes sense. Even after adjusting the offensive gameplan to reflect the absence of two perimeter shooters, the Terriers’ primary offensive weapons like to operate far away from the basket. In conference play, BU has garnered almost 37 percent of its points from beyond the arc ‘-‘- the average team gets less than 28 percent of its points from deep. Since BU is so dependent on its outside shooting, missing a few more shots than usual can have a substantial negative effect.
The Terriers’ remaining schedule provides some good tune-up opportunities. BU’s next two opponents, Iona and Maine, both excel when it comes to defending opponents on the perimeter. More opportunities to defeat teams geared toward taking away the 3 will only help prepare the Terriers for the conference tournament ‘-‘- and prepare they must.
Right now, BU is down. In a few weeks, they may be out.
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