He’s a reformer and an autocrat, a modernizer and a repressive leader, a prince but an acting king. His name is Mohammed bin Salman. But he goes by the name MBS (pronounce each letter). This two-faced man is in the center of many headlines because of Saudi Arabia’s highly suspect role in the disappearance and potential murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post, was mostly likely murdered by the Saudi government. In Istanbul, Khashoggi entered a Saudi consulate in order to obtain an official divorce so he could marry his Turkish fiancée the next day. However, he was not seen again. The Turkish government named 15 Saudis who took two charter planes to Turkey and left shortly thereafter. One of the Saudis is a forensic expert known for pioneering rapid and mobile autopsies. Another has close, personal ties to MBS and three are in his security detail.
There are two reasonable explanations for the events that transpired over a week ago: Saudi Arabia murdered Khashoggi or Turkey is setting up Saudi Arabia because of its blockade of Qatar, a Turkish ally. While the latter might make more sense on television in a plot of “House of Cards” or “Madam Secretary,” the former is much more reasonable. Before I further delve into why MBS may have had Khashoggi killed — the possible reports that MBS had no idea are clearly nonsense — let’s examine the “Western” or “Modernizer” side of the Crown Prince.
Saudi Arabia recently finished construction and opened the 280-mile Haramain Railway. It will connect the two holiest sites in Islam — Mecca and Medina — and have stops at Jeddah and King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC). This is all part of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 Plan.
Dreamt by MBS, this plan calls for the economic diversification of Saudi Arabia. MBS is thus moving toward major infrastructure projects to help plant the foundation for a more traditional economically developed society. A massive subway system is under construction in the capital – Riyadh – and the development/creation of KAEC is meant to be a major business center, perhaps rivaling Dubai, in the Middle East. But in 2018, less than 14 percent of government revenue is from non-oil sources.
Yet this dream seems to be crumbling, at least temporarily. A huge investment conference next month has seen many dropouts, while the stock market took a seven percent hit (which could easily double or triple with sanctions.)
So why would MBS have Khashoggi killed if it risks the development of the private sector of Saudi Arabia? Again, I offer two reasonable explanations: he may have thought he could get away with it or he may have wanted to demonstrate a sign of strength to rid out dissenters in Saudi Arabia. Both might be true, but the latter is more enticing. MBS has never truly been a modernizer in the traditional interpretation of the word.
As the Minister of Defense, he pushed for the war in Yemen. This civil war has led to a large-scale famine and human rights violations that bare resemblance to images of concentration camps. While he recently allowed women to drive in Saudi Arabia, before that, he imprisoned many of the female protestors who were fighting for this right. Last year, he imprisoned dozens of princes and senior business and government officials in the Ritz Carlton Riyadh.
Killing Khashoggi, a moderate dissenter, might cause some economic hardship. But it no doubt will strike fear in any dissenters in the Saudi government. Economic sanctions would likely have little impact on authoritarian power in the Middle East. You cannot one day support the Saudi mass killings in Yemen and the next throw your arms up at the murder of a journalist. You either live with the system or you change it. Sanctions are not going to change it.
